By Gavin K Carpenter
It’s now March, and that means it’s time for the most exciting part of the year: postseason basketball. With the amount of talent in the Pac-12 this year (two ranked teams didn’t even get a bye), this tournament has a pretty good chance of being the most exciting of all 32 conference tournaments. Let’s preview the first-round matchups:
No. 5 Colorado vs No. 12 Oregon (3/6, 12 p.m.)
Oregon (11-20, 2-16 Pac-12)
Coming into the Pac-12 Tournament with a program-record 13-game losing streak, the Oregon Ducks take the unenviable spot of being the 12th and last seed. The Ducks are led by their big three of guard Chance Gray, forward Grace VanSlooten, and center Phillipena Kyei. Each is averaging over 12 points per game this season. Forward Kennedy Basham has also been a bright spot, averaging 11.5 points over the Ducks’ last three games. The team’s main struggle, however, has been from the lack of bench scoring. In their last five games, the bench has represented 9% of the total scoring, with two games without a single bench point.
Colorado (21-8, 11-7 Pac-12)
While the Buffaloes enter the tournament as the 13th-ranked team in the country, that still isn’t good enough to win them a top-four seed in this historically incredible Pac-12. The Buffs are also coming into the tournament on a bit of a slide; they started the season 20-3 but have since lost five of their last six games. This has mostly been due to a combination of poor guard shooting and a large number of games against ranked teams. Center Aaronette Vonleh has scored 10+ points in 10 of her last 11 appearances, and star guard Jaylyn Sherrod is a solid point guard who shoots 44% from the field but only 23% from the perimeter. Forward Quay Miller also leads the Buffs in rebounds and has been strong from inside the paint.
Matchup
These two teams have faced off twice, first on Jan. 28 in Eugene and then on Feb. 9 in Boulder. Both wins ended up going to the Buffaloes; the first ended up being a gritty defensive showcase from both teams, while the second ended up being a 33-point blowout with five Buffs players in double figures. In a more defensive-minded game like the first matchup, the Ducks do have a chance of winning by limiting the Buffalo offensive output in the paint, but if the Buffs can shoot well from the perimeter and build up momentum, it will most likely be a quick end to the Ducks’ tournament run.
Prediction: Colorado 84, Oregon 58
No. 8 Cal vs No. 9 Washington State (3/6, 2:30 p.m.)
Cal (17-13, 7-11 Pac-12)
The Golden Bears have won four of their last seven, including one against the Cougars in Pullman. While their resume doesn’t look great on paper, this is a team built to create upsets. The team collectively shoots the three at a high rate; 25.3 attempts per game, good enough for second in the Pac-12. While they only connect on their three-pointers around 33% of the time, one hot spurt in a close game and the Golden Bears are moving on. Also of note is forward Michelle Onyiah, who will create turnovers and cause trouble for opposing forwards, even if those opponents are much taller.
Washington State (18-13,7-11 Pac-12)
The defending Pac-12 Tournament champs enter the tournament on a bit of a momentum uptick thanks to a nine-point upset of Colorado in Boulder. Before that, they had struggled, winning just two of their last nine games. Averaging 70 points per game and committing the second least turnovers and third least personal fouls in the Pac-12, the Cougars have been one of the most consistent teams in the conference. While losing their leading scorer and second-leading rebounder Charlisse Leger-Walker has been difficult, but the Cougars have seen improvement out of guard Tara Wallack and have gotten stellar play from freshman guard Eleonora Villa. Center Bella Murekatete has been having another fantastic season and currently leads the team in both points and rebounds.
Matchup
While the Golden Bears do have two wins over the Cougars, one was in overtime and the other came by eight points with two Golden Bears bench players getting into double figures. For Cal, the goal will be to utilize their aggressive playstyle in the paint, where they will have an advantage, creating space for kick-outs and three-pointers in the corners. For Washington State, the big key is going to be guard play. In their most recent upset of Colorado, the Cougars shot 47% from the perimeter and three of their starting guards had 12+ points. In their most recent loss to Cal, on the other hand, they shot 2-for-10 from the arc. Even with the two losses to Cal in the regular season, this Washington State team has momentum coming in and a history of upsets in the Pac-12 Tournament.
Prediction: Washington State 65, Cal 59
No. 7 Arizona vs No. 10 Washington (3/6, 6 p.m.)
Arizona (16-14, 8-10 Pac-12)
The Wildcats come into the tournament on a two-game losing streak after a close loss to USC and a blowout to UCLA. Before that, however, they had a four-game winning streak, including a six-point win over Stanford. They didn’t start out the season great with a 4-8 conference record and some seemingly strange non-conference losses, but as the season progressed, every non-conference opponent they faced found their way into the top 25, and the Wildcats rebounded to take even the best of the Pac-12 to the wire. The Wildcats are playing their usual guard-heavy offense, with star Kailyn Gilbert averaging 15 points per game along with three other guards averaging at least nine points per game. Forward Esmery Martinez has also been key for Arizona; she leads the team in rebounding and free-throw shooting and had 17 points in the Wildcats’ upset of Stanford.
Washington (16-13, 6-12 Pac-12)
Washington comes into the tournament with one of the biggest momentum swings, winning three of their last four, including upsets of Oregon State and Utah. Their only loss came by six on the road against Colorado. The Huskies shoot the ball the least often of any team in the Pac-12, but in their last five games, they have out-rebounded and out-scored their opponents in the paint. A lot of this is due to forward Dilayah Daniels; she’s scored 12+ points in each of her last four games and leads the team in rebounding. Guards Elle Ladine and Hannah Stines each average over nine points per game, and small forward/guard Lauren Schwartz has shot 74% over her last two games, scoring 18 points in both matchups.
Matchup
The series between these two teams is tied 1-1 this season, with each team winning their respective matchup at home. Washington’s win came by two points in a low-scoring affair, while Arizona’s game in a 90-82 high-flying matchup. The key to this game will be pacing; when the Huskies win, it’s usually by a closer margin in a game where neither team scores 70, while the Wildcats’ biggest upsets and best performances have come in high-scoring games. If the Wildcats pull away early, they are very capable of sitting and maintaining their lead, but if the Huskies can keep it close, this game has the potential to be the most exciting in the tournament.
Prediction: Arizona 74, Washington 58
No. 6 Utah vs No. 11 Arizona State (3/6, 8:30 p.m.)
Utah (21-9, 11-7 Pac-12)
Utah comes into the tournament as the No. 22 ranked team in the country but has lost two of their last four. The Utes shoot three-pointers at a high rate — nearly 46% of all attempts are from beyond the arc; they lead the Pac-12 in three-point percentage as well. They have put up more than 70 points in 21 games and have won 19 of those 21. Senior guard Alissa Pili leads both Utah and the Pac-12 in scoring with 21 points per game; she leads the team in rebounding as well. She is backed up by Gianna Kneepkins and Kennady McQueen; both of those guards are averaging over 10 points a contest, with all three guards averaging 40% or above from beyond the arc.
Arizona State (11-19, 3-15 Pac-12)
Coming into the tournament on a five-game losing streak and having won just three games in their last 19, the Sun Devils are still looking for an answer on offense. Sophomore guard Jalyn Brown averages 18 points per game, and she has two decent options in guards Trayanna Crisp and Jaddan Simmonds, but no forward or center on the team averages more than six points per game and five rebounds per game. That lack of rebounding has been the Sun Devils’ biggest flaw; in their last five games, their opponents have gotten at least 10 more rebounds over the course of the game.
Matchup
These two teams have faced off only once this season, and Utah took the win 58-41 in Tempe. In that game the Utes outrebounded the Sun Devils by 15 and Arizona State was only able to score more than 10 points in one quarter. With the three-point shooting prowess of Utah and the lack of rebounding ability from the Sun Devils, this game will most likely devolve into a tune-up game for the Utes very quickly.
Prediction: Utah 78, Arizona State 51
With those games out of the way, let’s also take a look at the four teams who received a first-round bye:
No. 4 Oregon State vs Colorado/Oregon (3/7 12 p.m.)
Oregon State (23-6, 12-6 Pac-12)
The Beavers had been on the rise after being overlooked for most of the season, but they’ve lost three of their last five, including a four-point loss to Stanford at home. The Beavers are second in the Pac-12 in field goal and three-point percentage, and their largest loss this season has been by 11 (to UCLA, who was No. 2 in the nation at the time), and they have only lost one game to an unranked opponent. Key to their success has been forward Raegan Beers; of her 14 conference games, she has scored 14+ points in 10 of those games. Forward Timea Gardner has shone in her first full season as a starter; she’s scored more than 10 points in each of her last nine and recorded multiple double-doubles this season. Point Guard Talia von Oelhoffen has been stellar in her third full season, averaging 11 points and five assists, but her real impact has been as the leader of the team.
No. 3 UCLA vs Utah/Arizona State (3/7 2:30 p.m.)
UCLA (24-5, 13-5 Pac-12)
The Bruins enter the tournament on a five-game winning streak, including wins over Colorado and Utah. UCLA has one of the most potent offenses in the nation, with four of their starting players averaging double figures, and bench forward Gabriela Jaquez averages 10 points as well. The Bruins are led by star center Lauren Betts, who averages 15 points and nine rebounds per game, as well as shooting 66.7% from the floor. Betts, alongside guards Charisma Osbourne and Kiki Rice and forward Angela Dugalic, has led the Bruins to a 7-4 record against top-25 teams and the most offensive rebounds in the Pac-12.
No. 2 USC vs Arizona/Washington (3/7 6 p.m.)
USC (23-5, 13-5 Pac-12)
The Trojans enter the tournament having won nine of their last 10 games, four of which were against top-20 opponents. Star guard Juju Watkins has played her way into National Player of the Year conversations in just her freshman season. Her lowest point total since Christmas was 17 and she’s scored at least 15 points in every game this year. She averages 28 points a game, just behind Caitlin Clark for the most of any player this season. But this isn’t just the Juju Watkins show — guard McKenzie Forbes averages 13 points per game, and center Rayah Marshall is averaging a double-double. This team may have been overlooked at the beginning of the season, but no one’s overlooking them now, and they have as good a shot as any to challenge for the Pac-12 Championship.
No. 1 Stanford vs Cal/Washington State (3/7 8:30 p.m.)
Stanford (26-4, 15-3 Pac-12)
The Cardinal enter the tournament having won seven of their last eight, including a 20-point blowout of UCLA at home. The team leads the Pac-12 in offensive efficiency and point differential and is one of the most disciplined teams in the country, getting to the line almost 1.5 times as much as their opponents, an accomplishment for a forward-heavy team. Star forward Cameron Brink is having yet another season that has put her in the Player of the Year conversation and with another top-20 forward in the country in Kiki Iriafen, the Cardinal have arguably the best paint attack in the country. Their rebounding has also been incredible, combining for 23 rebounds on average between the two of them; for reference, Stanford usually allows 30 rebounds per game by their opponents’ entire team. Both players are averaging a double-double on the year, and with both of them playing at their highest level, it’s hard to see any team beating Stanford to the Pac-12 crown.
Computer Elo Predictions
These predictions have been made by tracking each team’s adjusted Elo rating over the course of the season.
First Round
Colorado (78%) beats Oregon
Washington State (60%) beats Cal
Arizona (56%) beats Washington
Utah (82%) beats Arizona State
Second Round
Oregon State (57%) beats Colorado
Stanford (70%) beats Washington State
USC (65%) beats Arizona
UCLA (62%) beats Utah
Semifinals
Stanford (56%) beats Oregon State
UCLA (54%) beats USC
Championship
UCLA (52.5%) beats Stanford
Chance of UCLA winning the championship –- 23.02%
Chance of Stanford winning the championship –- 25.13%
Chance of USC winning the championship –- 19.11%
Chance of Oregon State winning the championship –- 13.78%
Chance of computer predictions being perfect — 0.58%