By John Evans

EUGENE, OR – This Saturday, the #9 Oregon Ducks will play host to the visiting Washington State Cougars for some Pac-12 football. The Ducks are coming off a heartbreaking weekend in Seattle that saw them lose their first game of the season in a top-10 matchup to their Pacific Northwest rivals, the Washington Huskies, as kicker, Camden Lewis missed a game-tying field goal as time expired. Oregon will also be debuting their new retro look this week, bringing back the yellow helmets they rocked throughout the 80s and 90s. The Cougars, meanwhile, started off their season 4-0, climbing as high as #13 in the AP Top 25, before losing back-to-back games to UCLA and Arizona. You can catch the game at 12:30 p.m. PST on ABC, and on KWVA, 88.1 FM, where Ryan Milano and Knight Jarecki will be on the call.

Oregon

The Ducks went into last weekend with big expectations and were met with an equally big disappointment. As the #8 team in the country, Oregon’s matchup against their undefeated Pac-12 rivals, #7 Washington, was one of the season’s most anticipated games so far, with College Gameday taking place live from Seattle on Saturday morning. Despite a closely contested battle, the Ducks fell to their rivals 36-33.

It was a back-and-forth contest all game, with the two teams being very evenly matched. Both teams started the game off with punts, a surprise for two of the nation’s top offenses, before figuring things out and scoring on their next drives. By halftime, the Huskies led the Ducks 22-18, but Oregon had failed to convert a fourth and goal opportunity from the Washington three-yard line as time expired in the first half. While it wasn’t known then, Head Coach, Dan Lanning’s aggressiveness, going for the touchdown rather than settling for a field goal would come back to bite the Ducks. After another Oregon three-and-out to start the second half, Michael Penix Jr. marched the Huskies down the field to throw his third touchdown pass, making the score 29-18. When the Ducks followed this up with another turnover on downs inside the Washington 10-yard line, it looked like the game would be out of hand for the Ducks. But just when they needed it most, both the offense and defense stepped up. The Duck defense forced back-to-back punts from the Washington offense while Bo Nix connected with Troy Franklin for a 30-yard touchdown and Jordan James powered his way to the endzone to put the Ducks up 33-29 with just under 13 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. After stopping the Huskies on fourth and goal from the two, the Ducks tried to salt away the game, but eventually turned the ball back over on another fourth down at the Washington 47-yard line. After two Penix passes, the Huskies scored to retake the lead, giving the Ducks just over 90 seconds to try to either tie or win the game. Nix led the Duck offense to the Washington 25-yard line with three seconds to go, giving Camden Lewis the opportunity to tie the game with a field goal. Kicking straight into the Husky student section, Lewis barely pushed his kick wide right. The crowd erupted and students rushed the field as Prince’s “Purple Rain” blared over the loudspeakers, announcing a Duck defeat for the second straight year.

Despite the loss, Oregon only dropped to the #9 spot in the AP Top 25, with the Huskies climbing to #5 as the lone undefeated Pac-12 team remaining. The Ducks still have one of the nation’s top offenses, with their 555 total yards and 48.5 points per game both leading college football. While their offense has been one of the best units in the country, their defense has been no slouch either, ranking in the top 13 in both total yards and points allowed per game.

The engine of this Oregon offense has been the dynamic duo of quarterback, Bo Nix, and wide receiver, Troy Franklin, who have both been among the best at their positions this season. Nix has been one of the nation’s most efficient passers this season, completing 78.9% of his passes, the most among the 75 Power Five QBs with at least 100 dropbacks this year. He’s been given the opportunity to do this as his offensive line has done an excellent job protecting him this year. He’s been the second least pressured Power Five starter, only facing pressure on 12.6% of his dropbacks, which has helped him have the third-lowest turnover-worthy play percentage at only 0.9%, per Pro Football Focus. Franklin, meanwhile, has been nothing short of one of the best receivers in all of college football this season, with his eight touchdowns tying him for third-best among Power Five receivers. He has excelled as a deep threat this season, as four of his eight touchdowns have come on passes of over 20 yards this season, again tying him for third among Power Five receivers, and his 331 yards on those throws rank him fourth. His ability to threaten defenses over the top has helped to unlock this Oregon offense, mandating other teams to send safety help his way, giving the Ducks’ other receivers opportunities to win against one one-on-one coverage. Additionally, he’s been a threat after the catch this year, with his 284 yards ranking seventh among Power Five receivers. Franklin’s overall efficiency, ranking third among Power Five receivers with 3.66 yards per route run, has garnered him NFL draft attention, as he was recently ranked 25th on Mel Kiper Jr.’s latest NFL Draft big board for ESPN.

One thing to watch for the Ducks defensively will be the return of cornerback, Jahlil Florence, who left the Washington game early in the third quarter and didn’t return. Before exiting with the injury, Florence had racked up three tackles and an interception that gave the Ducks a chance to score near the end of the first half. This season, Florence has been one of the Pac-12’s best coverage corners, allowing a completion percentage of only 53.3% when he’s been targeted this season. When he went down with an injury, the Ducks replaced him with Trikweze Bridges, who finished the game starting opposite Khyree Jackson. While Bridges finished the game with four tackles, all of them in big plays against the Washington rushing attack, the Husky offense opted to attack him in coverage rather than Jackson, whose 43.3 NFL passer rating allowed has been the fourth-lowest mark in the Pac-12 this season, per PFF. In the second half, Penix targeted Bridges six times in coverage, with him allowing three catches for 35 yards, including the game-winning touchdown on a back-shoulder fade to Rome Odunze with 1:42 left in the fourth quarter. Florence returned to practice Monday and is expected to play and start this weekend against the Cougars.

Washington State

The Cougars got out to a hot start this year, winning all of their first four games, including upsets of #19 Wisconsin and #14 Oregon State, but have recently come crashing back to Earth. After reaching the #13 spot in the AP Top 25 ahead of their week six matchup at UCLA, they were upset by the Bruins, 25-17, before being pummelled 44-6 at home by Arizona, tumbling all the way out of the top 25. 

Through their first four games, the Cougars had one of the top offenses in the nation. Led by by quarterback, Cameron Ward, Washington State was averaging over 45 points per game. Ward had worked himself into the Heisman race, trailing only Penix and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders with 1,393 passing yards while tossing 13 touchdowns with no interceptions, adding an additional three scores on the ground. The highlight of that stretch was an upset win at home over Oregon State, who at the time was ranked as the #14 team in the country and had one of the nation’s top defenses, allowing only 11 points per game. Ward lit up the Beaver defense, going 19 for 20 with 293 yards and three touchdowns through the air while also adding one on the ground, all in the first half as the Cougars led 28-14. Ward finished the game with 404 passing yards, his second time reaching the 400-yard mark, and five total touchdowns as the Beavers rallied late but ultimately failed to make a comeback with the Cougars winning 38-35.

Coming off their week five bye, Washington State looked like they had solidified themselves as a true contender in the Pac-12, with their first 4-0 start since 2017. They had climbed all the way to the #13 team in the country after starting the season unranked, and Ward looked like he might have an outside shot at ending up in New York City on December 9. Unfortunately for the Cougars and their fans, those hopes started to slip away when they headed to the Rose Bowl to take on the UCLA Bruins. While the Bruins were considered to have one of the Pac-12’s best defenses, only allowing an average of 11 points through their first four games, no one expected what would happen to the Washington State offense. Ward completed less than 50% of his passes for only the second time in his career as he tallied only 197 passing yards and the Cougars were outgained by 255 total yards. In addition to his less-than-stellar yardage totals, Ward also tossed his first two interceptions of the year as UCLA beat Washington State 25-17 to hand them their first loss of the season.

The loss at UCLA dropped the Cougars to the #19 spot in the AP Top 25, exposing some of the holes in their offense, but it would only get worse from there. When the 3-3 Arizona Wildcats came to town, Washington State thought it would be an opportunity to get right against a weaker opponent. After the Cougars’ first drive of the game, it looked like they would be right, but after that, their offense was completely shut down, with the Wildcats scoring 44 straight points. The 44-6 defeat was Washington State’s worst home loss since 2008, a season that saw them finish 2-11 and get outscored 453-77 by Pac-10 opponents. Ward again struggled, throwing for 192 yards and an interception while Arizona’s backup, Noah Fifita, lit up the Cougar defense for 342 yards and the Wildcats rushed for five touchdowns.

After looking like one of the nation’s most explosive offenses during their first four games, the games against UCLA and Arizona didn’t even look like they were played by the same team. From the first four games to the two most recent, Ward’s average passing yards per game dropped by nearly 160 yards while his completion percentage dropped by 16%. He was no longer pushing the ball downfield either, as his yards per attempt and average depth of target dropped from 9.7 and 8.0 down to 5.5 and 6.1, respectively. Through his first four games, PFF credited Ward with seven big-time throws, passes with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window, compared to five turnover-worthy plays, four of which being fumbles. But against UCLA and Arizona, Ward had eight turnover-worthy plays with only one big-time throw, even worse than his ratio of three interceptions to only one touchdown during those games. One thing that could potentially be credited with causing Ward’s struggles during his last two games is the increased pressure he has seen from opposing pass rushes. During the Cougar’s first four games, Ward was pressured on 26.8% of his dropbacks, per PFF, but against UCLA and Arizona, that rate went up by over 11%, as he faced a 38.5% pressure rate. 

Ward’s recent shortcomings haven’t been the only thing holding back the Cougars, as their rushing attack has struggled all season. Even when they were winning it wasn’t very good, as they averaged 127.8 rushing yards per game across their first four games, a mark that would currently rank 16th among Power Five teams and was largely bolstered by a 229-yard performance against Northern Colorado. After mustering a measly 12 yards against UCLA and only 35 yards against Arizona, that average has dropped to a mere 93 yards per game, the fifth least among Power Five squads. This weak run game can largely be attributed to poor blocking, as PFF has graded their run blocking as the fourth worst in the Power Five.

During Washington State’s game against Arizona, Noah Fifita was able to exploit weak tackling and passiveness from the Cougar defense to rack up 342 passing yards on the day. Against the Cougars, Fifita’s average depth of target was only 4.4 yards down the field, but 271 yards after the catch from Wildcat receivers helped him reach such incredible passing numbers as Washington State missed on over 16% of their tackle attempts. Overall, he finished the game going 30 for 32 with 267 passing yards on throws less than ten yards downfield.

Final Overview

This week should be a good opportunity for the Ducks to bounce back with a win after their tragic defeat at the hands of the Huskies last week. Oregon has been one of the nation’s most balanced teams on both offense and defense, while the Cougars have relied heavily on their explosive passing game to try to outscore their opponents. Despite Ward and Washington State’s struggles in recent weeks, the damage they were able to do over their first four games shouldn’t be discounted, and Ward should be viewed as just as much of a threat as Shedeur Sanders was heading into his game at Autzen earlier this year. The Ducks should be able to exploit Washington State’s weak tackling with their underneath passing game, as Bo Nix’s 6.3-yard average depth of target this season will directly attack the areas the Cougars struggled in against Arizona. I think Ward has a chance to make this game interesting, but Oregon ultimately wins this one 45-20 and takes their next step towards getting revenge against Washington in the Pac-12 Championship.