The Oregon Ducks men’s basketball team came out swinging this season, posting a 9-0 record to start the year. While the defense did its job in those games, the offense was what shined for Oregon, putting up 80 or more points in five of the nine games and 70 or more in three games. The undefeated streak was eventually broken and more losses were sprinkled in, but the Ducks kept winning for the most part and that offense kept clicking with four more 80-plus point games including an 89-point burst against Weber State.
The Ducks have completely lost this. After putting up 82 in a gritty win against Penn State, they have sputtered with four losses in five games. In those four losses, the Ducks totaled 58 against Purdue, 69 against a bottom tier of the Big Ten Minnesota team, 52 against UCLA and now 71 points against lowly Nebraska.
“We haven’t made the progress that we need to make, offensively and defensively. We are kind of in a rut now,” head coach Dana Altman said. “Shots don’t go in, and our energy level goes down.”
These struggles are not random. In these games, defenses have proved that the Oregon offense has become predictable. Post-traps on Nate Bittle and aggressive on-ball defense occurring once point guard Jackson Shelstad crosses half-court seems to be Oregon’s kryptonite. When defenses are able to be successful at stopping those, the offense goes completely stagnant. This leads to players standing around until the shot clock gets low and then hoisting up prayer triples, which rarely go in.
The excessive 3-pointers show up on the stat sheet. In those four games, Oregon has won one. In that game, Oregon shot only 18 3-pointers and hit six of them. In the losses, Oregon shot 29 against Purdue, making seven, 23 against Minnesota, making eight, 23 against UCLA, making four and 20 against Nebraska, making five.
“If you look at our percentages, we got to be careful with our 3s,” Altman said. “I’m being realistic with the guys, [they] are open for a reason.”
These 3-point attempt numbers are consistent with the rest of the season, but it has become clear that the magic is gone and it is time for an Oregon adjustment. The current offensive method of hoping the 3-point shot is going in that day does not work anymore, and will especially not work when it is time to play the nation's finest.
Another issue is Shelstad's offensive struggles. Teams have been able to counter his flash-like movements with immediate tight defense as soon as Shelstad crosses midcourt. When Shelstad tries to get by his defender, he is met with quick help defense. Shelstad’s lack of size prevents him from muscling past these defenders to get a layup, so when the help defense is on time, he is forced to pass or settle for a triple. Shelstad has been locked down to his standards but has still been able to get his buckets, scoring 16 against Nebraska.
The swarming defense on Shelstad would be less of a problem if the Ducks had another playmaking guard to help out, but they do not. Keeshawn Barthelemy is the only other consistent rotation guard on the roster, but his skills of shooting the mid-range and 3-pointers compliment a shooting guard more. Barthelemy lacks the point guard skills of passing, playmaking and leading four other guys on the court, leaving Oregon with no other options when Shelstad is locked down.
Bittle's offensive struggles have limited Oregon’s offense as well. Double-teams as soon as the ball is fed to him force pass-outs, turnovers or tough contested shots. Teams have realized Bittle struggles against the double, and have sent more and more pressure. This pressure has led to below-average shooting for Bittle, and extremely low-scoring performances. In the last four games, Bittle has scored seven points while going 3-for-8 from the field, zero in a 0-for-3 performance, 13 at a 5-for-11 mark and four while going 2-for-5.
Depth at the center position limits the offense from looking to another big man while Bittle is being doubled. The poor play and decreased playing time from Kwame Evans Jr. take that option away, and players who excel in the post like Supreme Cook are too short to consistently play center, as Cook is listed at 6-foot-9. Despite this, the strong post-hook buckets from Cook these last five games have come up huge for Oregon and could be an option to turn to if size proves to not be an issue.
“Looking at the plus-minus, I gotta take a hit. I should’ve had Supreme out there a lot more,” Altman said after the Nebraska game. “I kept waiting for Nate to get going a little bit, but he was a little flat tonight.”
Oregon needs to find this offense quickly. It has two days to find ways to either get Bittle’s offense back or look elsewhere in the lineup for some offense. A new scheme that finds a source of offense is necessary, and the days of standing around and hoping the chucked-up 3-pointer goes in need to be left in the past. The hopeful and fiery Ducks from earlier in the season seem to have disappeared.
Luckily, there is time for experienced Coach Altman to rile his crew back up to make the necessary changes. The Ducks’ next matchup comes Wednesday, Feb. 5 against the unranked Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor.