Written By: Griffin Bowes
This Friday night will feature a battle between two Eugene-area schools that will reveal a lot about the position of both programs in the league hierarchy. Coming into this game with a 4-0 league record, Thurston could not have asked for a better start. They sit atop the league standings with a one game lead over Springfield and Eagle Point, both of which they dominated in head-to-head matchups. Meanwhile, South Eugene currently sits in second-to-last place with a 1-3 league record, with the win coming against Willamette by 3 points. The Axe are in desperate need of a momentum shift after 3 consecutive losses, and this week’s test will not be an easy one.
Thurston quarterback Noah Blair leads the league in both total passing yards and passing yards per game, with around a 2-to-1 lead over the second-place QB in both stats. As you would expect, their receiving stats are also very impressive. The three leading receivers for the Colts rank 1-2-3 in the league in both total passing yards and the per-game average.
If there is a weaker area on the Thurston offense, it is the rushing attack. While their ground stats are still very respectable, they are not as dominant or eye-catching. However, they do have two ball carriers in the league top 10 in total rushing yards, with both players gaining north of 5.5 yards per carry.
Where this team can be susceptible is on the defensive side of the ball. The Colts are capable of putting together a great defensive performance, as we saw last week in their 47-6 win over Eagle Point. However, they are less consistently dominant in this area, as they have allowed 20+ points on two separate occasions this season. Still, they have 6 players with at least 20 total tackles this season, led by Mason Sanders with 27.
South Eugene’s offense has been their main liability this season, due to inconsistent performance. While the Axe scored a season-high 40 points in last week’s nailbiter loss to nearby North Eugene, they also had three games in which they failed to score even 10 points. While they showed potential last week, this team will need another strong offensive performance to even have a chance this week.
On defense, the Axe have actually held their own this year. Excluding last week, they haven’t allowed 40 points in any game, with their worst performance coming in a road game against an out-of-league opponent. The big issue for South Eugene is that they haven’t been able to play great defense for a full 48 minutes. Excluding their season opener, they haven’t had a single game in which the opposing offense was held to under 25 points.
This game carries massive implications for both teams moving forward. If Thurston is able to finish the season on top of the standings, it would be their third consecutive league championship. A win this week would place them only a game away from clinching that title, as they have a head-to-head tiebreaker advantage over both of the current second-place teams.
While South Eugene is clearly out of contention for the league title, a win here would provide two key benefits. Not only would it provide them with some much needed momentum, but escaping Thurston with a win would likely mean that the offense had another big day. If the Axe can maintain their offensive success from last week, they could have a promising end to the year which will hopefully springboard them into an improved 2024 season.
Unfortunately for the Axe, I don’t see them mustering enough offense to be able to run with Thurston’s explosive passing attack. While they can certainly play competitively for a half, I see Thurston pulling away and winning by around 3-4 touchdowns.
FINAL SCORE: THURSTON 45, SOUTH EUGENE 24