By: Griffin Bowes
THE 2022 SEASON will begin for both the Ducks and Rattlers tonight in Matthew Knight Arena. Both teams are hopeful for more promising results after a season of periodic struggles. Oregon was plagued by inconsistency throughout much of last year. The Ducks beat 3 AP top 12 teams, which includes a 3-day stretch when they beat two top-5 teams on the road. However, they also lost 9 games against unranked opponents, and got blown out by Houston in Las Vegas. Prior to last year, the Ducks saw some sustained success. They had a 3-season stretch that resulted in 2 Sweet Sixteens, and an AP top 15 finish in the 2019-20 season (no tournament). They also made the Final Four in 2017. On the other hand, the Florida A&M Rattlers have only made the NCAA tournament 3 times in their program’s history (a 16 seed in each appearance), and they have never advanced past the second round. The Rattlers won most of their conference games in each of the last 4 seasons, but they haven’t had an overall record above .500 in at least 10 years.
THE OREGON DUCKS matched up evenly with their opponents last year, as they weren’t overly dominant or incredibly weak in any stat. They scored an average of 72.3 points per game last season, with an average margin of victory of 2.6. Their cumulative field goal percentage was slightly above 45% and they made about a third of their 3pt attempts. Their defense played relatively well, as they were successful in forcing turnovers. They forced an average of 13.3 turnovers per game, only surrendering an average of 11.7. Where they struggled was from the free throw line. They only shot 67.9% from the line, which was 2.6% worse than their opponents.
Oregon had a relatively distributed attack, with Will Richardson, Jacob Young, De’Vion Harmon, and N’Faly Dante being the main contributors. Young and Harmon finished their Oregon basketball careers last season, but the Ducks do benefit from two major returns. Richardson (guard) led the team in 3pt percentage and total makes last year, and he will remain with the Ducks for his senior season. Dante (center), who led the team in field goal percentage and rebounds, is also returning for his senior season. Not many teams get to benefit from having two productive veterans at different positions. How Oregon fares this season will hinge on the performance of these seniors.
THE FLORIDA A&M RATTLERS had a definite disadvantage in a couple important statistical categories last season. They scored an average of 65.1 points per game, which was 3.7 points less than their opponents. They also struggled from 3, making an average of 4.5% less shots from downtown than their competition. They also decisively lost the rebounding battle, only controlling a per game average of 32.9 rebounds to their opponents’ 37.2. The Rattlers had a slight advantage in field goal percentage, free throw percentage, and turnovers. However, these advantages were not enough to compensate for the disparities listed above.
Florida A&M has some big holes to fill with MJ Randolph and Kamron Reaves (both guards) now gone. Randolph was the Rattlers’ main scorer last season, converting on 447 field goals (next highest was 238). Last season, Reaves was their main 3pt shooter, and also led the team in free throw percentage (minimum 5 attempts). They will also miss out on production from Jalen Speer and Bryce Moragne. With many of their key contributors gone, some younger or less experienced players will have to step up or fill the void, or this could be a painful rebuilding year for the Rattlers.
With much of last year’s production not available, the Rattlers will likely struggle early in the game, as their less experienced lineup struggles to find a rhythm in the hostile environment of Matthew Knight. Oregon will rely on senior leadership from Richardson and Dante to grow a sizable lead in the first half, which will allow them to exercise their reserves in the second half and improve their roster’s depth.
PREDICTION: OREGON 78, FLORIDA A&M 57