WHEN: SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 7:30 PM PT
WHERE: AUTZEN STADIUM, EUGENE, OR
By: Griffin Bowes
THE 12TH RANKED OREGON DUCKS have found themselves at a major crossroads this week. On one hand, last week’s 37-34 loss to rival Washington all but eliminated them from the College Football Playoff discussion. The status of quarterback Bo Nix is to be determined, as he suffered an apparent ankle injury last week. On the other hand, winning the PAC-12 and making the Rose Bowl is still a very realistic goal for the Ducks. We will learn a lot about the resilience of the Oregon coaches and players in this week’s matchup against #10 Utah. With many of their preseason goals still in front of them, the Ducks could bounce back with a hard-fought win over a quality Ute team. Or, they could be discouraged after falling out of national contention, and suffer their second straight home loss.
ABOUT A MONTH AGO, we got to see Utah in a nearly identical situation. In Week 6, the Utes traveled to Pasadena for a top-20 affair with UCLA. Similar to Oregon last week, their defense had a bad game, and they fell out of the playoff race with a 42-32 loss. However, they bounced back with a come-from-behind home win over #7 USC. The fans rushed the field, and energy was restored in the locker room. The Utes have played well since; winning their last 3 games by an average of over 21 points. Like Oregon, they are very much in the conference championship race. The winner of this game will most likely face the winner of USC-UCLA (also this Saturday) in Las Vegas on December 2nd for the PAC-12 crown.
IF OREGON WINS, it will likely be a result of offensive efficiency, as well as the forcing of key turnovers. Utah likes to play a game-control strategy of football, where they win time of possession and limit their opponent’s ability to score. In both of their losses this season (at Florida, at UCLA), the Utes won the first down battle. They also ran more plays than their opponent. Where they lost was the yards per play statistic; their offense was less efficient than that of Florida and UCLA. If Bo Nix is available against Utah, his playmaking ability can lead the Ducks to a win. Also, quarterback Cameron Rising committed costly turnovers in both games. He threw a costly goal-line interception against Florida, and lost a fumble against UCLA that was nearly returned for a touchdown. Home field can also be a factor for the Ducks, as they have only lost once in Autzen Stadium since 2018 (last week).
IF UTAH WINS, quarterback protection and a consistent offense will be the reason why. In Week 1, defending national champion Georgia was able to score 49 points on the Ducks while rarely throwing downfield. This is because their offensive line did a stellar job protecting quarterback Stetson Bennett. He was able to sit back in the pocket and pick apart the Ducks’ defense with short passes to reliable tight ends (Bowers, Washington). Utah can replicate this strategy, as they have a strong offensive line (T-6 in America in sacks allowed). However, star tight end Dalton Kincaid is currently out with what appears to be a shoulder injury. His availability against Oregon will definitely be a factor.
PREDICTION: Utah has been regarded as the physical class of the PAC-12 for a few years now. Their methodical style of football is very reliable; you know what Ute team you are going to get every game. Even without Kincaid, I believe that Utah will have success on offense. Questions about Nix’s status, as well as possible motivation issues make me uncertain about how well Oregon will execute. Utah will control this game on the ground, and score just enough points to escape a rowdy Autzen with a win.
FINAL SCORE: Utah 27, Oregon 24