Written by Austin Ota

The Oregon Baseball team has had an up-and-down beginning to their 2022 season. Coming into the year, it was fair to assume that the Ducks would start hot and stay hot, as they finished the 2021 season just short of 40 wins and lost their hosted regional in heartbreaking fashion to a tough LSU team. However, they lost the first three games of the season to San Diego and then broke the early losing streak by winning the fourth game of the series thanks in large part to a grand slam off the bat of catcher Josiah Cromwick. Since then, Oregon has seemed to find an identity, as they swept St. John’s before going a combined 3-2 against UCSB and Portland. With that said, the upcoming series might prove to be their toughest of the regular season - opening conference play in Palo Alto against #5 Stanford. In this article, I’ll be breaking down the game by game pitching matchups, projected lineups, and my predictions for the outcomes of these games.

Game 1 - Alex Williams versus Caleb Sloan

Both of these lineups will have extremely tough tasks in the first game of the three-game series. Williams, who established himself as a dominant finesse arm early in his Cardinal career, features a high-eighties fastball with a sink that complements a slider, a diving changeup, and an above-average curveball. Williams began his collegiate career as a pitch-to-contact arm but has since improved his secondary pitches enough to warrant attention when hitters fall down in the count. If Oregon wants to pounce on him, they should do so early, as he has completed just twelve innings over his three starts and will definitely look to go deeper in the game than he has of late.

The projected starter for the Ducks is Caleb Sloan, who is replacing ace Adam Maier. Maier, who was removed from his best start of the season with what appeared to be a forearm injury, will likely be placed back in the Friday starter role when he returns. Until then, it looks like it may be an all hands on deck approach for Coach Wasikowski's Ducks. Sloan, the TCU transfer, has been a solid option out of the bullpen this year. He features a heavy fastball with good bite on it, and has the ability to strike batters out at will. That said, I'd assume this becomes a bullpen game for the Ducks. With a 'pen featuring Matt Dallas, Stone Churby, and RJ Gordon from the right side, Oregon has a plethora of right handed arms to attack Stanford's righty heavy lineup. If they need left handed options, however, Rio Britton and Kolby Somers have both been dominant in their appearances, and the Ducks should look for that to continue this weekend against the Card.

Game 2 - Quinn Matthews versus Isaac Ayon

In one of the most impressive talent jumps of the season, Stanford’s Quinn Matthews has gone from somewhat of a liability on the mound (6.08 ERA in 2021) to utter dominance. Since being hit in his first appearance, Matthews has appeared in three games (two starts) and finished a combined 14 innings, striking out 19, while allowing only five hits and no runs. Matthews is a lefty somewhat reminiscent of former Cardinal ace Kris Bubic, as they both operated with an overpowering fastball with funk to match. Matthews’ unconventional pitching motion has a tendency to leave hitters off-balance, and Cardinal manager David Esquer enjoys mixing his pitch calls throughout the game to further that.

Oregon will bridge the bookends of the game with Isaac Ayon, the sophomore out of Buchanan High School in Fresno. Ayon has had a similar ascension to stardom for the Ducks this season as Matthews has had for the Cardinal. After flashing talent out of the bullpen in 2021, Ayon has switched his pitching to a different gear in 2022. Displaying by far the most consistency in the rotation, Ayon is fresh off the best game of his collegiate career, where he shut down a tough UCSB lineup. Going the full 7 innings in the doubleheader opener, Ayon matched his career-high with seven strikeouts, allowing just five hits and one earned run while staying under ninety pitches. His fastball-changeup combination is filthy, and he has been strong when allowing the run on his fastball to work off the tail of his changeup. Look for Ayon to have a strong showing and further make his name as a premier pitcher in the conference.

Game 3 - Drex Dowd versus Jacob Hughes/Tommy Brandenburg

Drew Dowd has been a godsend for Stanford this season as they have looked to establish their rotation that has been in somewhat of an influx since Tristan Beck, Kris Bubic, and Erik Miller dawned the Cardinal and Black in 2018. After struggling as a true freshman, Dowd has displayed extreme poise in the back end of the pitching rotation, and though he does not give the Cardinal the same length in games as Williams and Matthews, he has the ability to shut down lineups once or twice through and allow the bullpen to work. In his best performance of the season, Dowd struck out eight batters in just four innings against an offensively adept Indiana lineup. Dowd will look to attack Oregon’s lefty batters with a solid fastball and biting slider.

While the whole rotation as of now is somewhat of a question, the race for the third starter role has been broken wide open for the Ducks. After being nothing like the pitcher Duck fans or Coach Mark Wasikowski expected, righty Andrew Mosiello has been all but removed from the weekend rotation. Taking his place could be a piggyback between true freshmen Jacob Hughes, who was dominant in what was practically a three-inning throw day versus Portland, and Tommy Brandenburg, the burly right-hander who has shown flashes of potential as a usual weekday starter. It could be interesting to watch the two play off of each other, as Hughes is a finesse arm lacking an out pitch and Brandenburg is a fireballer with out-pitches to spare, but no control over them. In what could end up being a bullpen game, opening with either of these arms will allow them to prove they deserve more playing time if they succeed against one of the top teams in the country.

Projected Lineup - Stanford Cardinal

LF Eddie Park, So. (.262/.327/.262)

2B Tommy Troy, So. (.263/.310/.342)

CF Brock Jones, Jr. (.250/.426/.333)

C Kody Huff, Jr. (.265/.419/.500)

3B Drew Bowser, So. (.265/.324/.500)

1B Carter Graham, So. (.350/.386/.600)

RF Braden Montgomery, Fr. (.320/.433/.720)

DH Brett Barrera, Jr. (.355/.375/.655)

SS Adam Crampton, Jr. (.278/.350/.333)

It would be impossible to talk about the Cardinal lineup without first mentioning the absolute immense depth that Esquer has at his display. With the way this lineup is performing, one could argue that Esquer could flip the lineup around and would get the same results. Park and Troy, both local products, are tremendous at setting the table for the meat of the order. Brock Jones established himself as a household name in the college baseball community with his dominance through the 2021 College World Series, but his play thus far has not been to his standards. Kody Huff was recently named to the Buster Posey Award Watchlist. Drew Bowser, a top twenty recruit in his class, is protected in the lineup by Carter Graham, who has come out of nowhere to be tied for the team lead in home runs. The guy he’s tied with? Freshman seven-hole hitter Braden Montgomery, who also leads the team with three saves on the mound. Rounding out the lineup is Brett Barerra, who leads the Cardinal in batting average, and Adam Crampton, who is the perfect glue piece and quiet leader for a Stanford team lacking anything but personality.

Projected Lineup - Oregon

LF Tanner Smith, Jr. (.321/.387/.464)

3B Drew Cowley, Jr. (.512/.615/.902)

DH Brennan Milone, So. (.340/.397/.580)

1B Jacob Walsh, Fr. (.370/.443/.593)

SS Josh Kasevich, So. (.417/.492/.521)

RF Anthony Hall, So. (.244/.358/.333)

CF Colby Shade, So. (.444/.553/.722)

C Jack Scanlon, So. (.095/.240/.238)

2B Gavin Grant, Jr. (.270/.386/.486)

Oregon will rise and fall because of the offense. While the numbers overall jump off the paper, a lot of that is aided because of a strong series against a terrible St. John’s pitching staff. However, Tanner Smith, a preseason All-Pac-12 watchlist player, has completely turned his season around after a rocky start. Drew Cowley and Brennan Milone, both transfers, have proven invaluable at the front end of the order, with Cowley being top-ten in the nation in batting average. Jacob Walsh, who can be mistaken for an Oregon linebacker, has taken the sport by storm with his mix of power and bat control. Josh Kasevich, a Palo Alto product, continues to impress and will remind Stanford fans of former superstar Nico Horner. While Anthony Hall, Jack Scanlon, and Gavin Grant have all scuffled at times, Colby Shade’s defense, which is average at best, is not enough of a reason to take his scorching hot bat out of the lineup.

Final Thoughts

While I don’t expect much in the win column for the Ducks this weekend, look for individual players to step up. Specifically, Oregon’s veteran outfielders have a chance to really make their mark on the early part of the season. Isaac Ayon should continue his dominance, and Kolby Somers, Oregon’s superstar closer who has been quiet early in the year, will be called upon in what could be a string of close games.

Final Prediction: Stanford wins the series, 2-1