PREVIEW: Ducks One Win Away From PAC-12 Championship Berth

By Jonah Bruneau

Eugene, ORE. – This is it. One final Ducks-Beavers showdown for the near future. With the Ducks going off to the Big Ten conference and the Beavers potentially becoming an independent team along with Washington State, the beloved Oregon-Oregon State rivalry series could potentially see its last chapter written inside Autzen stadium on Black Friday night. 

The Ducks have the advantage over the Beavers throughout history with a 67-49-10 record, going back all the way to the very first matchup in 1894 when the then-Oregon Agricultural University (now Oregon State) defeated Oregon 16-0. 

In recent history, the Beavers have brought the fight to the Ducks. Over the last four seasons, the two programs have an even split in those games. Possibly the most back-breaking for the Ducks was just a season ago, where Oregon held a 31-10 lead in Corvallis with less than five minutes remaining in the third quarter and were unable to hold on to secure the win. The Beavers scored 21 unanswered points all in the fourth quarter to win the game, costing the Ducks a trip to Las Vegas to play in the PAC-12 Championship. 

What’s At Stake: The scenario this time around is quite similar to last year. Washington has locked themselves into the PAC-12 title game, meaning either Arizona or Oregon will meet the Huskies in Vegas. Oregon simply with a win would punch their ticket to Allegiant Stadium to earn a rematch with the Huskies, a contest that could be the most anticipated PAC-12 title game ever in its final season. 

Oregon State has other ideas. Just like last year, the Jonathan Smith-led Beavers will look to play spoiler once more with another potential upset in Eugene. In this case, the 15th ranked Arizona Wildcats then come into the picture. With a Duck loss, Arizona would need to also defeat Arizona State on Saturday in order to find themselves in their first conference championship game since 2014 when they got dismantled by an Oregon team quarterbacked by Marcus Mariota.

Team Preview

Oregon: Entering the final week of the regular season, the sixth-ranked Ducks sit currently second in the nation in total yards per game with a 545.7 average. They will be going up against a Beaver defense that has given up 327.5 yards per game this season, good for 29th in the nation. In the matchup last year, the Ducks tallied 470 yards of offense, but were stifled by Oregon State’s defense on their final three drives of the game each resulting in a turnover of downs. Quarterback Bo Nix threw for 327 yards, two touchdowns and no turnovers. 

Back to this season's trends, Nix has thrown for over 350 yards in three consecutive games leading up to this Friday, helping raise his yards per game to just under 322. For the defense, the Ducks rank 16th in total defense. They will stack up against an offense in Oregon State that is putting up 440 yards each week, which puts them at 25th in the nation in total offense.

Oregon State: The Beavers have been as high as No. 11 in the nation twice this season. Each time, they would eventually lose to Arizona and then Washington last weekend. Now they sit at No. 16 with an 8-3 record, making this Friday a top-20 matchup to wrap-up the regular season. Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, the junior transfer from Clemson, has arguably had his best collegiate season with Oregon State. He currently sits 104 yards away from earning a career high in passing yards, and three touchdowns through the air away from a career high. He enters this weekend with six interceptions, which would be good for the least of his time in college outside of the shortened 2020 season. 

Game Prediction

It’s a week of lasts for these two teams: The final Oregon-Oregon State battle for the foreseeable future, the final PAC-12 regular season finale, the final chance for the Beavers to play spoiler once more on the Ducks’ season. Oregon State has not won in Eugene since the 2007 season where they beat the Ducks in double overtime. In the 15 games since, Oregon has been victorious in 12 of them. Bo Nix has been able to propel wideouts such as junior Troy Franklin to unseen territory. Franklin, in his third season with Oregon, broke the single-season program record for receiving yards last weekend against Arizona State after passing Dillon Mitchell’s marker. I see no reason for this connection to slow down against Oregon State, especially with a conference title berth on the line. 

Score Prediction: 35-21 Oregon Victory