By: Ian Sutliff
EUGENE, OR -- The #9 Oregon Ducks will travel to Corvallis on Saturday to take on #21 Oregon State. For the Ducks, this game will likely determine whether it makes the Pac-12 championship next weekend or not. On the other side, Oregon State is looking to spoil the Ducks’ chances of making the Rose Bowl and finish 9-3 in the regular season for the first time in ten years. The big story going into this one though is that both teams will go into this “Oregon Classic” ranked for the first time since 2012. It should be a very close one at Reser stadium and will surely have big implications for the bowl season in December.
Oregon Offense:
Bo Nix’s health will be the big factor in what this Oregon offense does on Saturday. The Auburn transfer limped off the field against Washington two weeks ago and was a game-time decision when the Ducks faced Utah last weekend. This Oregon offense has been aided heavily by his rushing ability and struggled to score points against the Utes when Nix had a season-low rushing yards total of -3. The Heisman hopeful has said his leg feels “a lot better” but there’s still obvious concerns when you remember that Nix has broken his ankle twice during his playing career. That being said, the Ducks will face a very strong Oregon State defense that allows the least amount of rushing yards and is second in stopping the pass in the conference. If Oregon is going to take control of this game, it will need its running game to be very efficient. Bucky Irving ran for just 20 yards against Utah and Whittington, 53. It was the first time the two hadn’t hit the 100 mark since the Ducks’ abysmal performance against Georgia in the season opener. The Beavers have a stout defense that is the best in the Pac-12 so it’s clear that Oregon will need to be efficient in the air and on the ground if it wants to get back to its 40-point performances.
Oregon Defense:
It was very encouraging to see how Tosh Lupoi’s unit responded after giving up over 30 points for the first time since week four. The game was also important in getting revenge on a Utah offense that dominated them last season, scoring 38 points in both contests to give the Ducks two of its three regular season losses. Now the defense will face a Beavers offense with its running back Damien Martinez on a roll. The freshman back has run for over 100 yards in each of his last five games but Oregon is the second-best team in the conference at stopping the run. Oregon’s unit is led by Bennett Williams who is coming off a huge 14-tackle performance last weekend and leads the team in total tackles. Linebackers Noah Sewell and DJ Johnson will also be important in stopping this Beaver offense with the two combining for seven sacks and 86 tackles on the season. Oregon State has scored over 30 points in its last two games, which is something it hasn’t done since the first three weeks of the season. This means the Duck defense will need to channel the same success it had against Utah to keep pressure off the offense and clinch a spot in the Pac-12 championship.
Oregon State Offense:
How about running back Damien Martinez? The freshman has rushed for 639 yards over the last five games, as well as averaging 6.1 yards per carry this season and is a big reason the offense has had a late-season resurgence. Another reason the Beavers are playing well on offense is the growth of its quarterback Ben Gulbranson. Just like Martinez, Gulbranson is a freshman and took over the starting job when Chance Nolan went down in a 42-16 loss to Utah. Gulbranson threw two interceptions that game, but since then the Beavers are 5-1 while their quarterback has thrown eight touchdown passes and just one pick. While Oregon State may be very run heavy, there’s a good chance it will need to lean on the pass game if the running game can’t get going early. After all, Oregon has a great rushing defense, but gives up the most passing yards per game in the conference other than Cal. Luckily for the Beavers, Tre’s Harrison is one of the best receivers in the conference with 50 receptions for 589 yards to go along with four touchdowns. While it’s not their strength, Oregon State will need a strong passing game if it wants to take down the Ducks in Corvallis.
Oregon State Defense:
An impressive stat for the Beavers, the defense has allowed over 30 points just twice this season with both games being before Gulbranson took over at quarterback. They’ve also held high powered offenses like Washington and USC to 24 and 17 points, respectively. Omar Speights leads this defense with 64 tackles and Kitan Oladapo (58 tackles, 2.5 sacks) is an NFL prospect in the making at safety. While Colorado, Cal, and Arizona State aren’t exactly quality opponents, this Beaver unit was able to hold all of those teams to 10 points or fewer over the past four weeks. Oregon State’s performance against Oregon, who is likely the best offense they’ve faced, depends on the potential returns of Alex Austin and Jaydon Grant. If this team has any chance of shutting down Nix, it must get in the backfield and cause some disruption, which is something that it hasn’t done extremely well this season. What happens on Saturday will determine what kind of success Oregon State has going forward and could easily help the confidence of this unit as it enters bowl season and beyond.
Prediction:
If Nix is 100% on Saturday, it’s going to be a test that Oregon State hasn’t come close to facing this season. If the Oregon quarterback can’t use his feet, that’s when the Ducks might have some trouble offensively and this game might swing the way of the Beavers. Reser stadium will likely be packed and loud this weekend with the home crowd aiding the defense to create some momentum. While Oregon hasn’t had the same kind of offensive output over the past couple of weeks, it has still been very competitive and has so many weapons that it is bound to break out of this mini slump. With the chance to savour its season and keep the chances of a Rose Bowl appearance alive, Oregon will have success early on both sides of the ball. Gulbrasnon will be held to under 50 passing yards in the first half, but will lead a strong second half effort that falls just short because of a strong rushing performance from the Ducks.
Oregon 31 - Oregon State 20