By Levi Bergthold

The Oregon Ducks stay at #6 in the third College Football Playoff rankings for the 2023 season.  KWVA continues its weekly series to review the rankings.

The third edition of the College Football Playoff rankings was again defined by a lack of change.  Georgia and Ohio State swapped in the top two, but the remainder of the top eight remains the same.  The Oregon Ducks stay as the top one-loss team, looking up at the five undefeated programs.

With just two weeks left in the regular season, the pool of potential playoff teams has shrunken again. As we have discussed in prior ranking reviews, we know that no two-loss team will make the playoffs, and every undefeated team will make the playoffs.  This late into the season, a team can only move so far up in the rankings – leaving one-loss #24 Tulane on the outside looking in, regardless of what happens.

Given this, only nine teams remain with a chance at the College Football Playoff.  Going down the stretch, the importance of conference championships will be key.

The Importance of Conference Championships

To date, 36 teams have made the playoffs.  29 of them were conference champions, and Notre Dame has made two playoff appearances despite not being in a conference.  Of the remaining 5 spots, three were taken by teams that didn’t make their conference championship game (Ohio State in 2016 and 2022, and Alabama in 2017), and two were taken by teams that lost in their conference championship game (TCU in 2022, and Georgia in 2021).

For a team to make the four-team playoff and not win their conference is an outlier and requires other Power 5 conference champions to have multiple losses.  Of those five outliers (in four separate years) discussed above, all had two multi-loss Power 5 conference champions.  Barring late-season upsets, that will not be the case this year. 

The Big 12 is the only conference without two or more undefeated or one-loss teams.  This is especially damaging for the loser of the #2 Ohio State and #3 Michigan matchup on the final week of the season.  In a season with weaker other conference champions, the loser could still make the playoffs (as Ohio State did in 2016 and 2022).  However, this year, all signs point to that being a play-in game for the playoffs.

Also, it is increasingly guaranteed that the loser of the SEC championship game (already clinched between #1 Georgia and #8 Alabama) will not make the playoffs.  In three of the nine years of the four-team playoff, a conference sent two teams to the postseason.  Given the increasing likelihood of four or more conference champions with one loss or less, that will not happen again.

Oregon’s Current Situation

It comes down to a game of musical chairs.  Four chairs, nine teams, five conferences.  One spot will be taken by the Big Ten champion, most likely whoever survives the grudge match of Michigan and Ohio State (the winner is currently slated to play an 8-2 #16 Iowa in the Big Ten championship game – it would be an all-time upset if they lost).  Another spot will be the champion of the SEC, already clinched with a high-stakes matchup between Georgia and Alabama.

Already, only two spots remain, and #4 Florida State has the inside track on one of them. They finish the regular season against 3-7 North Alabama and 5-5 Florida. Their greatest remaining obstacle is a probable matchup versus #9 Louisville.  Simply put, they win, and they are in.  However, even if Louisville pulls off the upset, the Cardinals are unlikely to make their first playoff appearance.  They would still be looking up at multiple one-loss conference champions – they would need other upsets to make a surprising postseason appearance.

A Florida State loss would make the Ducks’ lives much easier.  However, all signs point to the Big Ten champion, the SEC champion, and Florida State making the playoffs.  That leaves the Big 12 champion, with #7 Texas currently favored.  The Longhorns remain public enemy number one for Oregon.  They represent the strongest contender for that final playoff spot if all other results hold.  If both teams win out, it will be a tight race between the Ducks and the Longhorns, both one-loss Power 5 conference champions.

Resume comparison:
Texas:
Current Strength of Schedule: 8th
Scoring Offense Rank: #25
Scoring Defense Rank: #20
Marquee Win: Week 2 at #8 Alabama
Loss: Week 6 versus #14 Oklahoma
Oregon:
Current Strength of Schedule: 52nd
Scoring Offense Rank: #1
Scoring Defense Rank: #12
Marquee Win: Week 9 at #22 Utah
Loss: Week 7 at #5 Washington

The Longhorns schedule and marquee win is currently more impressive, but Oregon has the more statistically dominant offense and defense.  However, the best argument for Oregon might be precedent.  Through the first three versions of the College Football Playoff rankings, the committee has ranked Oregon above Texas.  The committee would need a good reason for Texas to jump the Ducks, which comes down to the teams remaining schedules:

Oregon Remaining Schedule:
@ Arizona State
Vs #11 Oregon State
PAC-12 Championship: currently vs #5 Washington
Texas Remaining Schedule:
@ Iowa State
Vs Texas Tech
Big 12 Championship: currently vs #23 Oklahoma State

Texas is quickly running out of chances for another marquee win to jump the Ducks, and Oregon has two top-15 matchups remaining on their schedule.  Given the unlikelihood of the Longhorns jumping the Ducks, and the importance of conference championships, it is increasingly likely that Oregon controls their own destiny.  It is "win and you are in" time for the Ducks.

Games That Matter This Week:
#6 Oregon @ Arizona State (1:00PM on FOX)
#5 Washington @ #11 Oregon State (4:30PM on ABC)
#7 Texas @ Iowa State (5:00PM on FOX)