By Blaise Winston

March is upon us, and it is every college basketball fan's favorite time of the year. It is time to dive into the final PAC-12 basketball tournament, where our team must win, as it appears that only two, maybe three teams, from the conference will secure an invitation to the greatest sporting event in the land. Below you will find the matchups for the first round of the PAC-12 tournament, starting on Wednesday, March 13, in Las Vegas, Nevada, at the T-Mobile Arena.  This year it is a guaranteed win-or-go-home scenario for the 5-12 seeds. So in a few hours, the duels will begin, and teams will strive to stay alive. Winners will move on to the quarters to play bye-rested top-four teams, where there will be significant possibilities for surprising outcomes. A momentum-building run by one of the lower seeds coupled with end of the regular season losses by each of the nationally ranked PAC-12 teams are signs that there will be confounding, frustrating, and thrilling moments that will elicit cheers, but also tears, along the way. Welcome to the madness.

No. 8 Washington vs No. 9 USC (3/13 @12 p.m.)

Washington (17-14, 9-11 PAC-12)

Before conference play, Washington had a stunning 8-3 record, with losses coming from highly ranked squads -- one coming against one of the best Nevada teams we’ve seen in years being ranked at 31st according to the NCAA’s net ranking system. Another loss was to the 2023 NCAA Tournament runner-up San Diego St., being ranked 20th by the NCAA. And the other loss was to Colorado State, a team also ranked very highly at 36th. The most notable win for UW in the preseason came from beating powerhouse Gonzaga. This Washington team has some serious talent, being led by star senior forward Keion Brooks Jr. who averages the most points per game in the PAC-12 at an impressive 21.3. Brooks Jr. was also named All PAC-12 First Team. Regardless, the Huskies clearly struggle with finding a level of consistency to succeed, especially as of late. The offense has not been a problem for UW as they average a little more than 80 points per game. However, their failing defense has been the main contributor to a disappointing season.

USC (14-17, 8-12 PAC-12)

Coming into the season USC had high expectations, being projected to finish second in the PAC-12 MBB preseason media poll. However, for the majority part of the season, nothing seemed to be clicking for them. A contributing factor to their lack of success was the six-game absence of freshman guard and lottery prospect, Isaiah Collier. During those games without Collier, the Trojans struggled in crucial conference play matchups, managing only a 1-5 record. However, USC’s win and loss story does not accurately reflect how they can finish in this PAC-12 tournament. The team has started picking up speed at the perfect time. USC has finished 4-1 in their last five games, with the one loss coming from the nationally ranked Washington State, but more importantly, the Trojans took down a No. 6 Arizona to finish off regular season play.

Matchup:

These two teams have faced off once before this season in Seattle, with the win going to USC. Washington struggled defensively this game, and could not find a solution to stop Collier. The guard finished with 31 points on 70% from the field. Although the Huskies are the higher-seeded team, it will be difficult for them to stop the hot Trojans. This game will be determined by defense, and Washington simply doesn’t have it. Ultimately USC shouldn’t have too much trouble taking down UW, especially with Isaiah Collier’s ability to pick the Huskies' defense apart.

Prediction: USC 80, Washington 75

No. 5 UCLA vs No. 12 Oregon St. (3/13 @2:30 p.m.)

UCLA (15-16, 10-10 PAC-12)

One word to describe UCLA’s team this year is average. This is one of the least talented UCLA teams there has been in the past ten years. The Bruins wrapped up conference play with a 10-10 record, leaving many college basketball fans shocked that they were even able to manage a .500 mark. The Bruins have almost no momentum going into this tournament winning only one of their last five games. Offensively UCLA is definitively the worst team in the PAC-12, having averaged only 65.9 points per game. This could be attributed to the fact the Bruins do not have a star, or any player on the team who averages more than 13 PPG. The only bright side of UCLA’s squad is that they are one of the best defensive teams in the conference. Being led by the sophomore forward Adem Bona, who was named the PAC-12 Defensive Player of the Year, and also made All PAC-12 First Team honors this year. Bona guides the Bruins to limit their opponents to a conference-best of 65.6 points per game.

Oregon St. (13-18, 5-15 PAC-12)

Finishing at the bottom of the PAC-12 is never a good sign going into the conference tournament. However, even though OSU finished last, the Beavers arguably had the most exciting moment in conference play this season. With that being Jordan Pope, star sophomore guard, hitting the game-winning three-pointer to upset No. 6 Arizona in Corvallis. As exciting as that moment was, it doesn’t change the fact how poorly they’ve played this season. With one of the worst offenses in the PAC-12, along with a below-average defense, the Beavers don’t really stand much of a chance in this conference tournament.

Matchup:

UCLA and OSU have faced twice already this season, with the Bruins taking both of those games. In those games, OSU fell to what UCLA does best, and that's defense. While Oregon St. averages 69.3 points per game. The Bruins kept the Beavers at an average of 62.5 points per game in those contests. Although UCLA lacks many aspects to be a thriving team, it seems as though OSU has met its makers with this one. If the Bruins stay aggressive on the glass and limit Pope, there is no reason they shouldn’t come out with a win.

Prediction: UCLA 68, Oregon St. 61

No. 7 Cal vs No. 10 Stanford (3/13 @6 p.m.)

Cal (13-18, 9-11 PAC-12)

Cal has started to struggle at the wrong time in the season. In the last three games the Golden Bears have played, they have lost by 10 or more points, with one of these losses coming from Stanford. Cal lives and dies by the three-ball, attempting the most in the PAC-12 with an average of 25.7 threes a game --- while only averaging 8.6 threes made a game. Players to watch for the Golden Bears are junior guard Jaylon Tyson and senior forward Fardaws Aimaq. Tyson has averaged the third most points per game in the conference with 19.6, along with shooting 47% from the field. Tyson was also awarded All PAC-12 First Team honors. The guard can be accredited for some big wins for Cal, with the Golden Bears being 5-1 in conference play when Tyson scores 25 or more points, while Cal’s center Fardaws is averaging a hefty double-double this season of 14.7 PPG along with 11 RPG. However, Cal still majorly struggles on the defensive end being the second-worst in the conference allowing 76.7 points per game. The Golden Bears are 3-9 in games where their opponents score 77 or more.

Stanford (13-17, 8-12 PAC-12)

Although Stanford took down Cal in their last game, this should not shy us away from the abysmal conference play it had this season. Towards the end stretch of the regular season for Stanford, it lost six straight games, and it's not like the Cardinals put up much of a fight, losing all the games by at least ten or more points. Despite being as bad as the Cardinals have been they still were able to top No. 4 Arizona in a blowout by 18 points. Stanford is similar to Cal, in the sense they both love shooting the three ball. The Cardinals average the most in the PAC-12 per game at 9.2 threes made, while shooting a solid 37.7%. Even though Stanford is seeded 10th, this team is not to be taken lightly being led by the 7'1 forward Maxime Raynaud. Raynaud is averaging 15.6 PPG, and top three in the conference for rebounds with 9.6 per game. Stanford also struggles defensively, however, and gives up 76.4 points per game. The Cardinals too are 3-9 in conference play when their opponents score 77 or more.

Matchup:

In the two matchups where the Golden Bears and Cardinals faced, they both were able to take one game. This upcoming game for the two could very easily result in a shootout due to both lacking defense and with Cal and Stanford leading the PAC-12 in three-pointers made per game. This game should be a competitive one due to both teams having extremely similar playing styles. However, the Cardinals seem to be a slightly more efficient team offensively, which could be what decides this game in the end.

Prediction: Stanford 80, Cal 77

No. 6 Utah vs No. 11 Arizona St. (3/13 @8:30 p.m.)

Utah (18-13, 9-11 PAC-12)

Utah has steadily been one of the most balanced teams in the PAC-12 on both ends of the court. It is fourth in points per game in the conference with 78.3, and sixth defensively allowing 73.2 points. The Utes finding itself as a sixth seed is no shock to many fans. Utah’s biggest strength is making the extra pass, and finding the open man. The Utes are second in assists per game in the PAC-12 with 17.4. Utah has arguably had the most fluid offense with the ball always moving. However, one player still stands out to the rest of the Utes squad, being senior center Branden Carlson. Carlson has been averaging 17.5 PPG on the season, placing him in the top ten for the PAC-12. Sadly enough, Carlson got injured playing their last regular season game at Oregon. This injury puts Carlson’s status in question, as well as when he will be able to return to the conference tournament. This season the Utes have played one game without Carlson, this being against the now 10-21 Southern Utah Thunderbirds. Without Branden Carlson, the Utes' conference tournament hopes could be cut short.

Arizona St. (14-17, 8-12 PAC-12)

Arizona St. has not excelled in many ways on the court this season, but it is nothing short of guard talent. Despite being the third worst in points per game in the conference at 69.4, the Sun Devils are a hungry team that refuses to go down without a fight. ASU is a scrappy team, being second in steals per game in the conference with 8.2, while also leading the PAC-12 in opponents turnovers per game with an outstanding 13.6 turnovers forced. Offensively the Sun Devils have not found much success, but they still manage to be one of three teams in the conference to turn the ball over the least with only 10.5 turnovers per game. The leader of this ASU team is junior guard Frankie Collins, who will do everything he can to make the person he's defending live a nightmare, as he wills himself to 2.7 steals per game, being first in the PAC-12. Doing so earned Collins PAC-12 All-Defensive First Team. Although the Sun Devils are seeded at 11th and struggle offensively, they will do everything possible to cause havoc on their opponents.

Matchup:

In the past two matchups this season where Utah and ASU faced off, ASU ran off with both of those games. In those games the Sun Devils forced an average of 14 turnovers off of the Utes, almost three more than Utah’s average. However, if ASU is not able to limit Utah’s rebounding it might have some serious trouble, due to the Utes being one of the strongest rebounding teams in the conference. The potential of missing Branden Carlson for this game would be detrimental for the Utes and would make it even more difficult to scrape by with a win. Considering ASU has beaten Utah twice already with Carlson fully healthy, it’s difficult seeing the Utes being able to get away with this one, either without Carlson or not 100% healthy.

Prediction Arizona St. 80, Utah 70

No. 4 Oregon vs UCLA/Oregon St. (3/14 @ 2:30 p.m.)

Oregon (20-11, 12-8 PAC-12)

Oregon finished this season exactly where most preseason media polls predicted them to, being in the fourth to fifth range. The Ducks being able to finish fourth in the PAC-12 is impressive as is. Throughout the whole season, the Ducks were plagued with injuries. First, they lost starting senior guard Jesse Zarzuela due to an ankle injury for the rest of the season. Next, the Ducks lost starting junior forward Nate Bittle due to an illness. After that, they lost senior guard Keeshawn Barthelemy to a season-ending leg injury. Although senior center N’Faly Dante is off the injury report now, he too has struggled with injuries this season, missing 14 total games. However, in the face of adversity, Oregon still managed to finish conference play 12-8, led by the experienced Dante. Dante finished on the All-PAC-12 First Team, and on top of that honor, he was also awarded PAC-12 All-Defensive First Team honors. Another Duck that received merit recently was standout freshman guard Jackson Shelstead, who made the PAC-12 All-Freshman First Team. For Oregon’s squad to get a bid to the NCAA tournament, it would have to win at least two games in the conference tournament. If the Ducks want to succeed in this tournament they must stick to what works best for them. UO has great success in not turning the ball over, and also locking in on the defensive end. The Ducks must do everything they can to slow their opponents down offensively, but if Oregon is able to do so, it just might be able to squeeze into the NCAA tournament.

No. 3 Colorado vs Utah/Arizona St. (3/14 @8:30 p.m.)

Colorado (22-9, 13-7 PAC-12)

Colorado has silently been the most efficient offense in the conference, despite missing top 10 projected lottery prospect Cody Williams for 13 games this season. Williams earned PAC-12 All-Freshman First Team merit, regardless of only playing 18 games this season. Williams missed the last four games in a row due to an ankle injury but has confirmed he will be suited up for Thursday night's game. However, Williams is not their only star, with All-PAC-12 First Team junior guard KJ Simpson, and All-PAC-12 Second Team senior forward Tristan da Silva. All three of these players are most likely to be drafted this year. The Buffaloes have averaged a little less than 81 points per game this season, shooting almost 50% from the field, and a remarkable 40% from three. With how well CU is doing offensively, it's incredible it can maintain the same energy on the other end of the court. The Buffaloes are only allowing around 72 points per game. Colorado is 9-1 in the PAC-12 when limiting opponents to 72 points and under. CU has been hot already winning all of its last six games. The Buffaloes should make a deep run in this conference tournament due to a first-round bye, and Cody Williams finally returning to action, to help elevate Colorado at another level. The Buffs should only need to win one conference tournament game to get a bid to the NCAA tournament.

No. 2 Washington St. vs Cal/Stanford (3/14 @6 p.m.)

Washington St. (23-8, 14-6 PAC-12)

Coming into this season, the bar was not set very high for Washington State. The Cougars were projected by many news sources and media outlets to finish around 10th or 11th in the conference. However, straight out of the gate WSU has been exceeding expectations, with the Cougars starting with a record of 9-2 in non-conference play. Even coming into PAC-12 play, WSU had its foot on the gas, beating nationally ranked Arizona, not once, but twice! Washington St. went from being predicted to finish 10th at best, to getting an auto-bid to the NCAA tournament. This could be attributed to the Cougars' stellar defensive play, only allowing 67.3 points per game. WSU also happens to be 9-0 in games where it has limited its opponents to 67 points or less. The Cougars' talented freshmen guard Myles Rice, and senior forward Isaac Jones have helped propel this WSU team to new heights this season. Rice had recently made All-PAC-12 First Team and on top of that PAC-12 Freshman of the Year. Jones too made the All-PAC-12 First Team. With these two leading the team, WSU ended up having great conference play this season and even went on an eight-game winning streak. The Cougars have also not lost two games in a row since December 31, 2023. With WSU's most recent loss coming from state rivals Washington, there should be no reason that Washington St. wouldn’t be able to pull away with at least one win in the conference tournament.

No. 1 Arizona vs Washington/USC (3/14 @12 p.m.)

Arizona (24-7, 15-5 PAC-12)

Arizona finishing first in the PAC-12 was no surprise for most college basketball fans. Since the beginning of the season, the PAC-12 MBB preseason media poll projected the Wildcats to finish first. This Arizona team is the definition of dominance, leading the conference in points per game with a shocking 89.5, and still managing to shoot 49.2% from the field. It is no shock that this UA team will be getting an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. This Wildcats squad is led by senior guard Caleb Love. Love has many accolades, but is most recently the newest recipient of the PAC-12 Conference Men’s Basketball Player of the Year. Alongside Love are other big-name draft prospects Pelle Larson, Kylan Boswell, Keshad Johnson and Oumar Ballo. As you can see, the roster is loaded with talent and is a force to be reckoned with in the PAC-12 tournament, and in the NCAA tournament.

Predictions

First Round:

USC beats Washington

UCLA beats Oregon St.

Stanford beats Cal

Arizona St. beats Utah

Quarterfinals:

USC beats Arizona

Oregon beats UCLA

Washington St. beats Stanford

Colorado beats Arizona St.

Semifinals:

Oregon beats USC

Colorado beats Washington St.

Championship:

Colorado beats Oregon