By: Ian Sutliff
Eugene, OR-- After an up-and-down start to the season for the Ducks, the team has found its rhythm over the past few weeks to the tune of ten straight victories. On the other side, the Beavers are starting to regain some of the success they had earlier on this season when they won 11 of their first 13. Over the past five games, Oregon State has won four, but it's still a shadow of the team it was back in early March. It’ll be a big telling sign where both teams are truly at in the middle of the 2023 season after coming into their campaigns with big expectations.
Oregon: One of the big reasons for the Ducks’ recent success has been the consistency at the plate. For the first month of the season, Oregon struggled to find an identity offensively with their stars off to a slow start. Coach Wazikowski relied heavily on transfer Owen Diodati out of the cleanup spot and starters Drew Cowley and Jacob Walsh weren’t as sharp out of the gate. Over this 10-game win streak, Oregon is averaging 11.8 runs per game and it’s helped greatly that Sabin Ceballos and Colby Shade have been on hot streaks as of late. After 26 games, the Ducks have six players hitting over .290 and the team batting average is up to an incredible .301. Tanner Smith leads the way as the senior is hitting .378 this season with six home runs and 24 RBIs. His .461 OBP is also really important, hitting out of the three spot this season with Rikuu Nishida and Cowley in front of him. Ceballos might be the most impressive hitter on this team though as his slash line is up to .375/.485/.700 through 80 at-bats. His six home runs and eight doubles have provided a much needed spark in the middle of this Oregon lineup.
As far as pitching goes, the Ducks have found much more inconsistency in their starting rotation with none of their regular starters owning an era below four. Jace Stoffal has been the best of the bunch thus far as he has gone 3-2 with a 4.13 ERA in six starts this season. On top of that, the righty has fanned 27 batters over 28 ⅓ innings and has a strong .228 batting average against. Even with a mediocre and mostly inexperienced rotation this season, Oregon’s bullpen has been pretty strong with a few standouts. Closer Josh Mollerus has been lights out this season with four saves and in 11 appearances, the transfer has yet to give up a run while striking out 21 batters in 13 ⅔ innings. Matt Dallas has also been a huge factor out of the bullpen as his 23 ⅓ innings lead all Ducks pitchers who have yet to make a start. Dallas leads the team in wins with four and owns a 2.70 ERA and an impressive .183 batting average against. Austin Anderson and Matthew Grabman should also be key in this series.
Oregon State: It’s been a disappointing season so far for the Beavers who always have high expectations and even though the team is 18-10, there are bigger standards in Corvallis. If Oregon State is going to right the ship, it’ll need to find consistency at the plate, the way the Ducks have recently found theirs. Travis Bazzana is one of the best raw hitters in the nation and is having another great season for the Beavers. Through 28 games, the second baseman is hitting .366 with three home runs and has driven in a team-high 25 runs. On top of that, Bazzana has 11 doubles and three triples which has his slugging percentage at .624 and his speed: seven stolen bases— are both team leads. The other standout for the Beavers is first baseman Garret Forrester who pitchers aren’t daring to throw to this season. The junior hit nine home runs in 2022 and has 27 walks in just 28 starts. He has also struckout just 23 times and has four home runs, which would be right on pace to tie his career-high in 2022. Brady Kasper will need to be someone that steps up for the Beavers, as he hasn’t been the same since he started off the season on a tear. He has gone just nine for his last 39 with just one home run and just two other extra-base hits.
What has held the season together for Oregon State has been the strength of the rotation and a very solid bullpen. Trent Sellers is 4-2 for the Beavers with 59 strikeouts through seven starts which leads the team in wins even though he has the worst ERA of the three regular starters in this rotation at 3.74. Jaren Hunter has been extremely solid in five starts this season with a 3.34 ERA and WHIP that sits at 1.08 in 29 ⅔ innings in 2023. Jacob Kmatz has also been consistent through his team-leading 37 innings and has walked just nine batters this season. Ryan Brown and AJ Hutchetson have been unhittable out of the bullpen this season as the two have combined to go 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA in 30 innings. The two aren’t huge strikeout pitchers with just 28 between the two but they’ve only allowed 13 hits all season which has been important for an Oregon State team that is just 3-3 in one-run games.
Prediction: With the Oregon offense finding its stride at the plate and Oregon State in the midst of a very up-and-down season, this series is sure to see some fireworks between the rivals. If the Ducks pitching is at its best, this could easily be a sweep, but the Beavers won’t go quietly against this inconsistent staff. After watching these teams through more than 25 games, Oregon is definitely the better team, but things tend to unravel sometimes as there are a lot of newcomers this season for Wasikowski’s squad.
Series: Oregon takes the first game 7-2 before dropping Saturday’s contest 5-4. They’ll close out the series finale with a 5-1 win to improve to 21-8 and move up to #23 in the polls at the start of next week.