Written by: Jonah Bruneau

Eugene, OR-- The NCAA has entered the infamous crunch time of the season as we embark on the month of February, where the big dance picture starts to become more clear. 

As It Stands

In Oregon’s case, this version of crunch time is substantially crucial as at the moment, the Ducks find themselves not in the conversation to claim a tournament berth. Joe Lunardi, the long time popular College Basketball Analyst for ESPN, currently does not even have Oregon in his ‘first four out’ or ‘next four out’ in his well known “Bracketology”. Long story short, the Ducks have an uphill battle. Of course, Oregon being led by coach Dan Altman could potentially run the table in the PAC-12 tournament and earn a spot in the madness of March that way, but how much does a team really want to rely on that? If Oregon wants to be in a position to not have to pull off this difficult feat, it starts with Arizona on Thursday night in the desert.

Remaining Schedules

As the no. 5 ranked team with a 19-3 overall record, the Wildcats of Arizona are on the opposite side of the spectrum compared to Oregon. Arizona has a chance at earning one of the four no. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament, especially after looking at their remaining schedule. Now, that is not to say upsets won’t happen as the regular season winds down; Oregon just dominated against Arizona a little under a month ago. However on paper, Arizona is looking good as three of their next four match-ups will be against sub-500 teams, one of those teams being CAL who holds the second-worst overall record of squads in the power six conferences (3-19). The final two games of the regular season will be the best challengers for the Wildcats as they will head to Los Angeles for meetings with USC and UCLA, both of which Arizona have defeated already.

For Oregon, every game from here on out feels like a tournament game. Sitting at 13-9, the Ducks have likely used up all of their mulligans and will need an excellent month of February to get back in the NCAA Tournament mix. As I aforementioned, Oregon's first contest with Arizona went well with a result of a 87-68 victory, but can they do it again on the road? Certainly possible. Yet it's not just Arizona to look out for if you are the Ducks: The next four games for Oregon, including Arizona, are against current NCAA Tournament teams or bubble teams for the big dance. Now, the last five games of the season for the Ducks are on the easier side from a first glance with Washington being the only team with a winning record. Simply, the opportunities are there for the Ducks for the entire month of February and into March.

Game Preview

The one-game-at-a-time mentality starts now for Oregon heading into Thursday's contest with Arizona. In the first match-up between the two, the Ducks averaged 53% from the field, their second-highest shooting percentage against PAC-12 opponents this season. Outside of N'Faly Dante's thunderous dunk to begin the game, the star of show that afternoon was Senior Guard Jermaine Couisnard, putting up a team-high 27 points with a solid 9-14 from the field. This summed up that afternoon of play, because both teams were equal in turnovers and about the same in three-point percentage. With that said, how much different will the game flow this time around if the Wildcats can shoot the ball better? Since the first loss to Oregon, Arizona has won four straight while averaging a casual 74 points-per-game. The Ducks have won three of their last four, while actually averaging a greater 75 points-per-game in that span. Sure that's only a one point difference, but Oregon is simply seeing more production on the offensive side of the floor than they have most of the campaign. With N'Faly Dante returning from a short injury stint last time out against Utah, that is a great sign for the Ducks as they will need him to be as close to 100% if they are going upset Arizona once more.

Prediction

In any sport, the task of achieving a season sweep of a conference opponent is a tough challenge, especially against a top-5 program in the nation. However, this is about the healthiest the Ducks lineup and roster has looked all season long. If Oregon wants to again take down the Wildcats this time on their home court, they will need stellar offensive performances from play-makers such as Will Richardson and Jermaine Couisnard. Furthermore, Oregon will need to be able to shut down Junior Forward Azuolas Tubelis, who is averaging 20 points-per-game for the Wildcats this season. The Ducks were in fact able to keep Tubelis in check in their first meeting against each other, holding the Arizona scoring leader to 14 points and nothing from downtown. Yet as I said, it is hard to echo the same performance multiple times in a season against the same team, along with being on the road this time at a loud and passionate McKale Center.

Score Prediction: 77-70 Arizona Victory