Written By: Griffin Bowes
THE OREGON DUCKS might be peaking at the right time. Despite losing the rematch with Arizona on Thursday, they have won 4 of their last 6 games. Two of those wins were by at least 15 points, with one of them being a 19-point domination of the aforementioned Wildcats. In their most recent win against Utah, the Ducks had a dominating defensive performance that resulted in a 68-56 win. They had 8 blocks to Utah’s one, and 30 defensive rebounds to the Utes’ 19. Oregon was also dominant in the paint, scoring 32 of their 68 points in that region.
HOWEVER, the question of whether or not they can sustain their recent success is one that must be asked, as the Ducks have been an up-and-down team for much of the season. Oregon has a handful of solid wins, but they have also suffered embarrassing losses, including the early-season blunder vs UC Irvine and the 27-point road loss to Colorado. This team has struggled with injuries and have been plagued by poor outside shooting. The Ducks have a season 3pt percentage of 30.8%, but they have been able to somewhat compensate with good paint performance and rebounding.
THOSE STRENGTHS have likely been a product of senior forward N’Faly Dante’s play. He averages 13 points and 7.5 rebounds, and he has a FG percentage of 62.2%. Star guard Will Richardson has averaged a team best 14 ppg and 5.4 assists per game. He has also shot almost 80% from the free throw line. Added to the Ducks’ starting lineup mid-season, redshirt junior Jermaine Couisnard has emerged as a consistent scoring threat. In the 9 games he has played, he has shot a team best (at least 10 attempts) 36.4% from 3, and scored an average of 12.9 ppg.
MEANWHILE, the Arizona State Sun Devils have been in a slump, as they have lost their last 4 games before turning things around with a 68-57 win over Oregon State. It should be noted that despite similar results, their performance has not been consistent from game to game. Against UCLA, they shot well from 3, but lost the rebounding battle and committed 6 more turnovers than the Bruins. The game against USC was a different story, as the Sun Devils took care of the ball, but only shot 22.7% from 3. Against the Beavers, they won the turnover battle and shot well from the outside (38.9%), which contributed to the favorable outcome.
THAT 4 GAME STRETCH can be a little misleading, because like the Ducks, ASU has shown signs of promise at various points in the season. They had a stretch of 9 straight wins, including a 25-point win over the 20th ranked Michigan Wolverines and a road win over Colorado. ASU’s average margin of victory is +4.8 (Oregon’s is +3.6), and their main strengths are assists, blocks and the turnover margin. They average 2.7 more assists than their opponents, 1.7 more blocks, and 1.9 less turnovers. The Sun Devils have lost the 3pt and rebounding battles, but only by a small margin.
THE SUN DEVILS have a balanced offense, with 4 players averaging over 10 ppg (minimum 15+ games played). Fifth-year player Desmond Cambridge is their leading scorer with 14.2 ppg. He has also accounted for 1.7 steals per game and 3.6 rebounds per game. His brother, Devan (Auburn transfer) has also played well, scoring 10.4 ppg, rebounding 5.4 times per game, and shooting 36% from 3. Guards DJ Horne and Frankie Collins (Michigan transfer) are the other players with over 10 ppg. Both have averaged over 3 rebounds, and Collins leads the team in assists (4.7 per game).
PREDICTION: While ASU is desperate for a big win, I believe that momentum will be the biggest factor in this game. Oregon appears to have hit their stride, and while despite beating Oregon State, ASU has lost a lot of the precision that led to their early season success. The Sun Devils will benefit from playing at home, but expect big days from Dante and Richardson to carry the Ducks to a narrow win.
OREGON 72, ARIZONA ST 68
*Unless otherwise noted, all stats are from the 2022-23 season