By: Ian Sutliff

When Oregon takes the field Saturday at Autzen stadium; a game which it is favored to win by more than three touchdowns, Dan Lanning’s team will have the same attitude it has this season regardless of opponent. The goal: win and do it in convincing fashion. With the first college football playoff rankings of the 2023 season released on Halloween, the Ducks are just two spots out of a potential trip back to the CFP for the first time since 2014. Cal will be looking to snap a three-game losing streak on the other hand but will be tested against an Oregon team with much larger aspirations.

Cal:

The Golden Bears are one of the most interesting teams in the nation with an offense that has been led by three different quarterbacks in its eight games this year. With Fernando Mendoza under center, Cal’s offense finally looks capable of putting up consistent outings. After starting the season as the third-string quarterback, the redshirt freshman has posted six touchdown passes to three interceptions, while completing 63% of his passes. Between the Auburn to Arizona State game (4 games), the Golden Bears averaged 24.3 points per game. After Mendoza became the starter on October 7th, Cal has averaged 34.1 PPG. It’s a drastically better offense than when Ben Finley and Sam Jackson were under center, and has now taken lots of pressure off its star player Jaydn Ott. 

While Cal has struggled to move the ball through the air, Ott is a breath of fresh air for this offense as his 784 rushing yards have the Golden Bears ranked as the third best running team in the conference. He’ll be tested on Saturday though against an Oregon team giving up just 95.6 yards on the ground per game (12th in the nation). Utah, who owns the seventh best run defense in the country held Ott to a season-low 40 yards just two weeks ago. 

On the other side of the ball, Cal’s struggles have been very concerning. Its rush defense has allowed 143.8 yards per game, ranking 9th in the PAC-12 and 64th nationally. The pass defense has been even worse, ranking 118th out of the 130 division 1 teams in terms of efficiency (149.11). Those numbers may be very bad news against an Oregon team who ranks in the top-10 in both rush and pass yards per game. It also gave up at least 50 points in all three games against USC, Oregon State, and Washington.

Oregon:

With one of the nation’s best offenses and defense, the Ducks are one of the country’s most complete teams. Now with Cal on deck, Oregon finally gets a break in its schedule after playing three of the conference’s juggernauts. Bo Nix is the Ducks’ star player and might just be the best quarterback in college football. This team also has a bunch of other standouts on the offensive side of the ball in Bucky Irving, Troy Franklin, and Tez Johnson to name a few. With 45.5 points per game, Oregon ranks third behind just LSU and USC as the third best scoring team in the nation. This is a team that has scored no fewer than 30 points in any single game this season. That isn’t likely to change Saturday. 

For all the attention on the Ducks’ offense, the defense might be just as good or an even better unit. It’s held five of its eight opponents to ten points or less, as well as being the 16th best team in the country in terms of total defense. On top of that, the rushing defense which will be more important against a Cal team that likes to involve Ott quite a bit is a top-15 unit nationally. The pass defense is also top-30. Another huge key to the game will be making the Golden Bears’ young quarterback uncomfortable in the pocket. With 27 sacks, the Ducks are 10th in the country and if they can get to Mendoza at least four times on Saturday, it will get ugly for Cal in a hurry.

Prediction:

Oregon is playing with a fire after losing its first game of the season to Washington three weeks ago with convincing wins against Washington State and Utah. With four games to go, the Ducks will continue to try and impress the CFP committee while keeping its eyes on a rematch with Washington in the conference championship. Dan Lanning’s team has been tested early but a home matchup with Cal is arguably the third-easiest game thus far. Mendoza has been solid for Cal since taking over but making his fourth career start against a national title contender on the road is a very tall task. Expect the outcome to be decided in the first half. 
Final Score Prediction: Oregon wins 59-6.