By: Ian Sutliff

Eugene, OR-- On Saturday, Oregon will look to extend its win streak to four as the Trojans and 2022 Heisman winner Caleb Williams come to Eugene. The biggest storyline will be centered around the USC defense as it plays its first game in the post-Alex Grinch era. Grinch was fired after the Trojan’s 52-42 loss to Washington as USC will look to make a change with the defense continuing to struggle in 2023. Even though SC has gone unranked in the latest CFP rankings, this should be a great matchup between two Heisman hopefuls in Bo Nix and Williams leading two of the best offensive units in the country.

USC: It’s been a season of turmoil for the Trojans who came into the season with national title aspirations after returning Williams, as well as having one of the top recruiting classes in college football. Now USC will have to find its footing and try to avoid leaving Eugene 7-4 as the hope for a New Year’s six bowl game continues to slip further out of reach. 

For the Trojans it all starts on the offensive side of the ball with arguably the best QB/head coach duo in the country in Williams and Lincoln Riley. USC ranks second in the nation in points per game with 45.5 and only trails the team they play on Saturday– the Oregon Ducks. It’s also the eighth best offense in terms of yards per game and the Trojans aren’t afraid to run the ball with MarShawn Lloyd and Austin Jones (the former of whom should be healthy against Oregon). With 160 rushing yards per game, Jones and Lloyd will need to be a tad bit better to take some of the pressure off Williams and the passing game in a potentially rainy environment this weekend. If the Trojans can continue to keep up their fifth best passing offense in the nation, that will be the edge where Oregon ranks just 36th in yards allowed through the air. 

On defense, USC will hand over the reigns to linebacker coach Brian Odom and defensive line coach Shaun Nua. It won’t be an easy task with the two calling plays as the interim defensive coordinators against Dan Lanning’s top-ranked offense. While the fault might not all be on Grinch for the Trojans’ defensive struggles, the team was in need of a big change as it is ranked 121st nationally in terms of scoring defense and 120th in yards per game against. Over the last four games (1-3), the Trojans have allowed 45.8 points per game. Three of those units were top 50 in PPG.

Oregon:Puddles could be active on Saturday night, earning himself some significant chest gains if Oregon’s offense continues its trend of high-scoring. Since Lanning and Nix came to Eugene, the Ducks have been held under 30 points just three times in their 22 games. None of those instances have occurred this season. Out of the division 1 teams the Ducks have faced, this is the lowest ranked defense in terms of total yards and points that Oregon has faced since the start of last season. It would be a big victory for USC to hold this top-ranked offense under 40 points.

With USC in town and the Ducks averaging almost 55 points per game at home, Nix will be looking to boost his shot at the Heisman with another great performance. He’ll also be looking to keep the Trojans from winning in Eugene. Something that hasn’t happened since USC beat Oregon 38-35 back in 2011. Let’s dive into the numbers. Nix has the highest completion percentage in the country (78.1%), is fourth in passing TD’s (25), fourth in passing efficiency (180.14), and has only thrown two interceptions. Behind Nix is a rushing attack of Bucky Irving and Jordan James, as well as standout pass-catchers Troy Franklin, Tez Johnson, and Terrance Ferguson. This unit ranks fourth in passing offense and tenth in rushing. That’s not to mention it has the best first down offense and third-highest conversion percentage on third downs. USC is tied for the worst first down defense in the country and just 81st nationally in terms of defensive third down conversion. 

There are so many big names on the offensive side of the ball for the Ducks, but it’s easy to forget that Oregon also boasts one of the best defenses in the country as well. Led by Tosh Lupoi, this is a defense that ranks 18th in the country in terms of total defense. The goal for the Ducks will most definitely be to stop the pass game that the Trojans love so much and instead force USC to run it where they’ve had far less success. Oregon also has a strong defensive front and has allowed the 12th lowest rushing yards per game in the FBS. 

Final Thoughts:

USC will absolutely be playing with the most motivation they’ve had all season. While its chances at a CFP berth are over, the Trojans have a chance to take the Oregon game as a turning point in the season. The defense should be optimistic about a change in leadership moving forward and beating the top-ranked offense in its home stadium would give life to a struggling team. Unfortunately for SC, that’s not likely to happen and while the rain could somewhat limit Nix and the offense, it’s unreasonable to think it could swing the game in the Trojans favor. The only two times that USC has held its opponents under 28 points were against Nevada and Stanford. Those two teams have combined for a 5-13 record. Oregon will likely feast on a weak defense that gave up 49 points to Cal two weeks ago. The Ducks held that same team to under 20 points and just six second-half points last weekend.

Prediction:

USC 24 – Oregon 48