By Levi Bergthold
The Oregon Ducks land at #6 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings for the 2023 season. KWVA will release a weekly review of the rankings, starting today.
The College Football Playoff has presented a unique math problem since its launch in 2014. Only four teams can make the playoff each year. This means that at least one Power 5 Conference champion is left out, before even worrying about independent teams (Notre Dame) and Group of 5 Conference champions.
That is why Oregon, sitting at #6 in the initial rankings, the top ranked one-loss team, might be in trouble. Before we dive into the details, let’s establish the rules of the playoffs. As we approach ten years of the Playoff, we now have a solid data sample for some unofficial of the rules of the system:
The (Unofficial) Rules of the College Football Playoff:
- An undefeated Power 5 team will always make the playoff
- A two-loss team will never make the playoff
These rules are not written in stone, but they are good foundational pieces for prediction purposes. Especially this year, with parity across the sport, these rules might hold for one more year. That said, the pool of potential playoff teams is just 14 – with all due respect to one-loss #24 Tulane and undefeated unranked James Madison, their lack of a strong resume deems them ineligible.
Most of these teams have multiple matchups remaining among the top-25, including against each other. Of the five unbeatens (Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan, Florida State, and Washington), two play each other (Ohio State and Michigan), meaning that the year will end with, at most, just four undefeated teams.
In addition to the rules above, there is one more constant. Barring true madness, the champions of the Big 10 and SEC will reach the playoffs. The only exception to this, the “madness”, would be if a two-loss team won one of those conferences (i.e., a two-loss Iowa upsets Michigan in the title game, for instance).
Over the last nine years, the Big 10 and SEC have represented 19 of 36 playoff teams (53%). The SEC has sent at least one representative every year, and the conference’s runner up has made it twice (2018, 2022). The Big 10 has sent a team to the postseason eight times, missing out just twice (2018, 2019 – in 2023 both Michigan and Ohio State made the semifinals). With eight of the top fifteen currently ranked teams from these two conferences, it would take several miracles for them to be left out.
Oregon’s Current Situation
The Ducks should be ecstatic that they are currently the top ranked one-loss team. This implies that they control their own destiny. A projected rematch in the PAC-12 Championship game versus #5 Washington, combined with the Michigan versus Ohio State game, gives Oregon a path to the fourth and final playoff ranking. What is clear is that Oregon cannot afford another loss.
Assuming the Big 10 and SEC Champions make the playoffs, the Ducks are competing against Florida State out of the ACC, and the champion of the Big 12 – projected to be a one-loss Texas or Oklahoma. Three teams competing for two spots in a high-stakes game of musical chairs.
Analysis of Potential Competitors
If Florida State is undefeated, they are in. Despite any concerns about strength of schedule or the weakness of the ACC, an undefeated Power 5 Champion will not be left out. It would benefit the Ducks greatly if the Seminoles stumbled. Any way that the ACC Champion can get pushed out of the playoffs puts Oregon in a better position.
What remains is a one-loss Oregon compared to other one-loss conference champions – specifically, a one-loss Big 12 champion. While five one-loss teams remain in the Big 12, I think Oregon’s resume and perceived strength compare very favorably to #22 Oklahoma State, #23 Kansas State, and unranked Iowa State. That leaves #7 Texas and #9 Oklahoma. Strength of schedule, strength of resume, best win, and worst loss will all be key metrics.
Compared to Oklahoma, the Ducks hold a clear edge, with an inside track to go to the playoffs. The Sooners’ loss to Kansas is crippling, and two potential victories over Texas should be passed up by the Ducks’ hypothetical revenge win versus Washington, combined with a victory over #18 Utah and necessary victories over #20 USC and #16 Oregon State.
Compared to Texas, things get shaky. The Longhorns mirror Oregon with a narrow loss versus a rival (Oklahoma), combined with a potential revenge victory in the conference title game. The key difference is how impressive the Longhorns’ victory in Tuscaloosa looks, especially as Alabama hits their stride going down the home stretch of the season. Given the committee’s historically favorable eye towards the SEC, I don’t love the Ducks’ chances in this situation.
The Worst-Case Scenario
Oregon Head Coach Dan Lanning desperately wants to avoid putting the committee in a situation where they compare a one-loss Oregon squad with two or three other one-loss champions or runners up. An example of this mess would be if Alabama wins the SEC, Texas runs the table in the Big 10, and the winner of Ohio State/Michigan and Florida State goes undefeated.
In this situation, the two undefeated champions are undisputedly into the playoffs – leaving one-loss champions Oregon, Alabama, and Texas and one-loss runner up Georgia competing for just two spots. Again, the perceived strength of the SEC champion matters – a one-loss SEC Champion Alabama will absolutely make the playoffs.
The same issues of Oregon versus Texas as I described above still apply. In this scenario, they are complicated by a one-loss Georgia as the SEC runner-up. It would be interesting to see if the perceived strength of the back-to-back National Champion Bulldogs would edge out the two conference champions. It’s hard to underestimate how much national respect Kirby Smart has accumulated over the last 36 months.
What might eliminate the Bulldogs is their lackluster September and October. Narrow wins over South Carolina (24-14) and Auburn (27-20) might come back to haunt them. Fair or unfair, the historical dominance of the SEC will get thrown around in this conversation. Also, while unfair, Georgia’s beatdown of Oregon last year will sneak its way into the committee’s minds – consciously or unconsciously.
What Oregon Needs
Oregon finds themselves in the odd position of hoping that the Huskies, Trojans, Utes, and Beavers win every game possible and look as glamorous as possible doing so. As Colorado implodes and the stains of the other PAC-12 teams worsen, the Ducks need their resume to look better, not worse. The high-flying Ducks need their loss (and PAC-12 Championship game win) versus the Purple and Gold to look as good as possible, and want ranked opponents defeated in Utah, USC, and OSU to look strong.
The Duck’s supervillain this year is Texas. Of the potential one-loss teams that Oregon is competing for playoff spots against, the Longhorns should scare the Ducks the most. Oregon fans should root against Texas every week, and hope they look as bad as possible in every win.
Any chaos in the ACC is welcomed. The ACC is perceived as one of the weaker conferences, so Oregon compares favorably to a one-loss ACC champion. In the opposite direction, Lanning’s squad is rooting for clear and undefeated champions out of the Big 10 and the SEC.
By all accounts, Oregon still controls their own destiny – but the path is far from clear.
Week 8 Games to Watch:
#23 Kansas State versus #7 Texas – 9:00AM on FOX
#12 Missouri versus #2 Georgia – 12:30PM on CBS
#5 Washington versus #20 USC – 4:30PM on ABC
#14 LSU versus #8 Alabama – 4:45PM on CBS