By Levi Bergthold
The Oregon Ducks stay at #6 in the third College Football
Playoff rankings for the 2023 season.
KWVA continues its weekly series to review the rankings.
The third edition of the College Football Playoff rankings
was again defined by a lack of change. Georgia
and Ohio State swapped in the top two, but the remainder of the top eight
remains the same. The Oregon Ducks stay
as the top one-loss team, looking up at the five undefeated programs.
With just two weeks left in the regular season, the pool of
potential playoff teams has shrunken again. As we have discussed in prior
ranking reviews, we know that no two-loss team will make the playoffs, and
every undefeated team will make the playoffs.
This late into the season, a team can only move so far up in the
rankings – leaving one-loss #24 Tulane on the outside looking in, regardless of
what happens.
Given this, only nine teams remain with a chance at the
College Football Playoff. Going down the
stretch, the importance of conference championships will be key.
The Importance of Conference Championships
To date, 36 teams have made the playoffs. 29 of them were conference champions, and
Notre Dame has made two playoff appearances despite not being in a
conference. Of the remaining 5 spots,
three were taken by teams that didn’t make their conference championship game (Ohio
State in 2016 and 2022, and Alabama in 2017), and two were taken by teams that
lost in their conference championship game (TCU in 2022, and Georgia in 2021).
For a team to make the four-team playoff and not win their
conference is an outlier and requires other Power 5 conference champions to have
multiple losses. Of those five outliers
(in four separate years) discussed above, all had two multi-loss Power 5
conference champions. Barring
late-season upsets, that will not be the case this year.
The Big 12 is the only conference without two or more
undefeated or one-loss teams. This is
especially damaging for the loser of the #2 Ohio State and #3 Michigan matchup
on the final week of the season. In a
season with weaker other conference champions, the loser could still make the
playoffs (as Ohio State did in 2016 and 2022).
However, this year, all signs point to that being a play-in game for the
playoffs.
Also, it is increasingly guaranteed that the loser of the
SEC championship game (already clinched between #1 Georgia and #8 Alabama) will
not make the playoffs. In three of the
nine years of the four-team playoff, a conference sent two teams to the
postseason. Given the increasing
likelihood of four or more conference champions with one loss or less, that
will not happen again.
Oregon’s Current Situation
It comes down to a game of musical chairs. Four chairs, nine teams, five
conferences. One spot will be taken by
the Big Ten champion, most likely whoever survives the grudge match of Michigan
and Ohio State (the winner is currently slated to play an 8-2 #16 Iowa in the
Big Ten championship game – it would be an all-time upset if they lost). Another spot will be the champion of the SEC,
already clinched with a high-stakes matchup between Georgia and Alabama.
Already, only two spots remain, and #4 Florida State has the
inside track on one of them. They finish the regular season against 3-7 North
Alabama and 5-5 Florida. Their greatest remaining obstacle is a probable
matchup versus #9 Louisville. Simply
put, they win, and they are in. However,
even if Louisville pulls off the upset, the Cardinals are unlikely to make
their first playoff appearance. They
would still be looking up at multiple one-loss conference champions – they
would need other upsets to make a surprising postseason appearance.
A Florida State loss would make the Ducks’ lives much
easier. However, all signs point to the
Big Ten champion, the SEC champion, and Florida State making the playoffs. That leaves the Big 12 champion, with #7
Texas currently favored. The Longhorns
remain public enemy number one for Oregon.
They represent the strongest contender for that final playoff spot if
all other results hold. If both teams
win out, it will be a tight race between the Ducks and the Longhorns, both
one-loss Power 5 conference champions.
Resume comparison:
Texas:
Current Strength of Schedule: 8th
Scoring Offense Rank: #25
Scoring Defense Rank: #20
Marquee Win: Week 2 at #8 Alabama
Loss: Week 6 versus #14 Oklahoma
Oregon:
Current Strength of Schedule: 52nd
Scoring Offense Rank: #1
Scoring Defense Rank: #12
Marquee Win: Week 9 at #22 Utah
Loss: Week 7 at #5 Washington
The Longhorns schedule and marquee win is currently more impressive, but Oregon has the more statistically dominant offense and defense. However, the best argument for Oregon might be precedent. Through the first three versions of the College Football Playoff rankings, the committee has ranked Oregon above Texas. The committee would need a good reason for Texas to jump the Ducks, which comes down to the teams remaining schedules:
Oregon Remaining Schedule:
@ Arizona State
Vs #11 Oregon State
PAC-12 Championship: currently vs #5 Washington
Texas Remaining Schedule:
@ Iowa State
Vs Texas Tech
Big 12 Championship: currently vs #23 Oklahoma State
Texas is quickly running out of chances for another marquee win to jump the Ducks, and Oregon has two top-15 matchups remaining on their schedule. Given the unlikelihood of the Longhorns jumping the Ducks, and the importance of conference championships, it is increasingly likely that Oregon controls their own destiny. It is “win and you are in” time for the Ducks.
Games That Matter This Week:
#6 Oregon @ Arizona State (1:00PM on FOX)
#5 Washington @ #11 Oregon State (4:30PM on ABC)
#7 Texas @ Iowa State (5:00PM on FOX)